Project wants to remove R$10.5 billion in diesel subsidies from the fiscal target

The federal government proposed removing up to R$10.5 billion in expenses with diesel subsidies from the calculation of the 2026 fiscal target.

The measure is part of the fiscal adjustment package presented to the National Congress this Wednesday (11), through a complementary bill filed by Senator Jaques Wagner (PT-BA), but prepared by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's economic team.

In practice, the proposal allows the government to disregard these expenses when evaluating compliance with the primary result target. This does not mean, however, that expenses will cease to exist. The resources will continue to be paid and will have an impact on public accounts and the country's debt.

What changes?

Currently, subsidy expenses authorized by extraordinary credits are already outside the Budget's regular spending limit, but continue to be included in the calculation of the fiscal target.

The project creates an exception so that up to R$10.5 billion intended for subsidies to diesel producers and importers are also removed from this calculation.

In practice:

The government will continue to pay subsidies;

Up to R$10.5 billion will be excluded from the calculation of the fiscal target;

Spending will continue to impact public accounts.

The measure is valid exclusively for the 2026 financial year and depends on Congressional approval.

Rising fuel prices

Subsidies were increased by the government to contain the rise in fuel prices, pressured by the appreciation of oil on the international market amid the war in the Middle East.

In September, the Executive opened R$6.6 billion in extraordinary credits. In October, it authorized another R$7.5 billion, totaling R$14.1 billion. Some of this money, however, also went to other grant programs.

The last extension of the benefit occurred on October 27th, for another 30 days. The estimated cost for this period is approximately R$10.5 billion.

Since March, the price containment policy also began to include measures related to gasoline and ethanol. According to government estimates, the set of subsidies and tax exemptions could cost around R$60 billion in 2026.

Oil revenue

To finance the benefits, the government intends to use the increase in revenue related to the appreciation of oil.

According to the National Treasury, the Union should obtain R$64.6 billion in additional revenue this year, coming from royalties, special participations, oil sales and export taxes.

Created in March, the 12% tax on oil exports raised R$15.8 billion between March and October. The forecast is to reach approximately R$22 billion by December. The charge has been extended until December 31st.

Tax package

During a hearing at the Mixed Budget Committee (CMO), this Wednesday, the Minister of Planning and Budget, Bruno Moretti, stated that the fiscal adjustment package should have an estimated impact of R$60 billion in 2027.

Among the planned measures are the review of tax benefits, the limitation of tax offsets and new possibilities for containing expenses.

The removal of diesel subsidies from the fiscal target, however, is the target of criticism from experts, who point out the risk of weakening public finance control mechanisms.

The proposal does not represent a saving of resources, but a relaxation of the fiscal rule: the government will be able to carry out these expenses without up to R$10.5 billion being considered when verifying compliance with the 2026 target.