The next president will inherit agribusiness problems that do not fit into a four-year term, according to experts interviewed by g1.
The Brazilian Agribusiness Association (Abag) proposes five public policies to address bottlenecks ranging from rural financing and extreme weather events to infrastructure, dependence on imported inputs and the opening of markets abroad.
The proposals are:
National policy for financing, rural insurance and climate resilience in the agroindustry: creation of a multi-year framework to expand resources allocated to the sector, including a National Climate Catastrophe Fund.
Industrial policy to strengthen the strategic chains of Brazilian agroindustry: stimulating the production of inputs, to guarantee the competitiveness of Brazilian industry, eliminating the "regulatory liability" to speed up the approval of new technologies.
National policy for governance, planning and financing of agro-industrial infrastructure: modernization and harmonization of licensing and authorization processes for infrastructure projects.
National policy for communication, education and appreciation of the agroindustry: permanent actions to expand knowledge about the sector's contribution to food security, sustainability, innovation and economic development.
National policy for international insertion and defense of Brazilian competitiveness: tackling tariff and non-tariff barriers, with coordinated action between the government, research institutions and the productive sector.
Experts interviewed by g1 say that the bottlenecks are real, but they have different dimensions and require long-term policies, in addition to the participation of the private sector. Some are already targets of actions by the current government, but still present problems of execution or scale.
Understand the scenario of each of the five points and the ways to face them.
Rural financing and insurance
For Felippe Serigati, researcher at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) Agro, the main bottleneck in financing and rural insurance is cost. According to him, interest rates remain high due to producers' debt and the increase in requests for judicial recovery.
For this reason, banks are more selective when granting credit.
Leandro Gilio, researcher at Insper Agro Global, explains that producers' defaults occur because of losses accumulated in consecutive harvests, caused by climate problems, high interest rates and high production costs.
"This is having a chain effect, damaging investments before production. That's why, at this moment, the government has to act a little stronger to try to prevent this process from ending up consuming investments in the sector", he says.
Currently, only 3% of agricultural production is covered by insurance, according to the researcher.
For Serigati, from FGV, the adjustment also needs to involve creditors and debtors. "Creditors will require some time so that they can adjust their rural credit portfolios again. On the side of the borrowers of this credit, they must have their accounts better organized, to be able to signal their real conditions to pay", he states.
Furthermore, he explains that some financial institutions avoid this type of credit because of the cost of operating it, generated by the Selic rate and the perception of risk, especially in the face of climate instability.
On Wednesday (30), the Official Gazette of the Union published law 15,526/2026, which will act as a new regulatory framework for rural insurance in the country. It already meets several of the requests made by Abag, such as the regulation of the Catastrophe Fund, aimed at damages caused by the climate.
In addition, the new law also determines that expenses with subsidy for rural insurance premiums are mandatory. For the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock (CNA), this will avoid resource constraints and provide protection to the budget.
Until then, rural insurance was not a mandatory expense and was one of the first areas to suffer cuts, explains Serigati, a researcher at FGV.
According to Gilio, criteria set out in rural credit policies are often not met and even lines financed by the Safra Plan are difficult for producers to access. The researcher says that the government needs to invest in the sector, as it is a strategic activity for the country's economy.
Strategic chains
For experts, dependence on imported fertilizers is, today, the main problem within this topic. Brazil imports around 80% of the chemical fertilizers it consumes, and a significant proportion of suppliers are in countries involved in wars or on routes affected by conflicts, such as the Strait of Hormuz.
Brazil already has the National Fertilizer Plan, which seeks to increase the country's independence in this area. However, its results are long-term. In addition to investments, there must be sources of potassium, phosphorus and nitrogen available for exploration.
"We have raw materials for some products, but for others, we don't. We will continue to depend on a certain volume of imports", says Carlos Eduardo de Freitas Vian, from the Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz Esalq-USP.
While the plan is not implemented, Brazil should diversify its suppliers, to be less exposed to conflicts, says Serigati, from FGV. Abag also asks to increase the manufacturing of machinery in Brazil. However, the researcher states that the country even exports these items.
For Vian, the main dependence is on machinery components, such as chips. In his opinion, it is unfeasible to bring this type of manufacturing to Brazil, as the country would not have sufficient demand.
The Abag document also cites a "regulatory liability" that delays the approval of new technologies. In this case, the Esalq professor believes that, in fact, this happens in the approval of chemical pesticides, due to safety tests, both environmental and health-related.
"Because when you speed up these processes, you may be failing to visualize something else. So it's a problem that, for me, is difficult to solve," he says.
Agro-industrial infrastructure
Brazil faces a major challenge when it comes to infrastructure that can be resolved in just one presidential term, says Serigati.
"We are talking about, within a period of four years, an increase of almost 100 million tons, equivalent to the Argentine harvest. Infrastructure has great difficulty growing at the same pace as agricultural production", he says.
Among the main logistical bottlenecks are low storage capacity and the precarious condition of part of the roads.
"It's a very serious issue, which greatly increases the cost and ends up directly affecting the agricultural producer's margin and this also requires public action", says Gilio.
Lack of adequate storage also causes losses of agricultural products. One of the obstacles highlighted by the researcher is the delay in granting environmental licenses for works.
"Because sometimes projects simply stand still, they are products that are sometimes urgent, they sometimes already have financing to do, they already have environmental studies done, and then, within the public machine, these licenses end up getting stuck", he states.
Another improvement that he believes could be made is greater integration between transport modes, such as railways and waterways, reducing dependence on roads.
For Vian, from Esalq, connectivity in the field is also an infrastructure bottleneck. "It's no use if you have a machine connected, if you can't transfer data", he says.
More than 1.3 million rural households did not have access to the internet in 2024, equivalent to 15% of the total, according to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
The Insper researcher also points out that this is a decades-old problem and that it would take time to resolve. Furthermore, the private sector would also need to invest in this. However, he believes that the next president could create a State policy aimed at guaranteeing legal security for investments.
Serigati explains that financing infrastructure works is more complex and that the public sector does not have sufficient resources to meet all demand. Therefore, the participation of the private sector would also be necessary.
"And the instruments are varied: concession, privatization or public-private partnership", he states.
Communication and appreciation of agroindustry
Agribusiness faces an image problem within Brazil and abroad, points out Vian. For him, the sector really needs a communication plan that values its strengths, but also demonstrates a willingness to correct weaknesses.
According to the professor, the federal government already has mechanisms aimed at this objective, but they can be improved. "I think we need to better prepare our representatives, ambassadors, to speak in an institutional way, but I think that the private sector, associations, everyone in some way has their role in this", he states.
For Serigati, a public policy articulated with sector initiatives would help position Brazil in negotiations with other countries and expand market opening.
Gilio states that other countries are more successful than Brazil in creating an international brand for their agricultural products. “We have some clear examples, like Colombian coffee,” he says. "These products become desired due to their origin", he adds.
According to the Insper researcher, it is also up to the sector to comply with public policies, such as combating deforestation, to contribute to the image. He emphasizes that this is not an action that can be completed by a single government and that its results will take several years.
International insertion and competitiveness
The international market is experiencing a new configuration, in which, in addition to producing competitively, countries need to maintain a dialogue with buyers and this is Brazil's challenge on this topic, says Serigati.
Gilio states that Brazil still has few long-term trade agreements. For example, the country should have an agreement with China, the sector's main customer.
"In this world of trade war, in which barriers grow, tariffs grow on the one hand, health restrictions on the other. It is important for the country to work a little harder on building bridges so that we can guarantee these markets", he says.
According to him, the agreements generate predictability, which also favors private investment in the country. The Insper researcher also believes that Brazil should anticipate more possible restrictions that partner countries may create.
An example is the case of the ban on antimicrobials in animal production, created by the European Union. Brazil only reacted after the measure was officially announced, although it was already widely expected.
Another issue is that Brazil exports large volumes, but concentrates sales in a few countries, which represents a risk for the market.
For Serigati, the effort to be present at international negotiation tables falls to the government, which has already been done by Brazil over the years, but also to the private sector, such as associations.
Vian, from Esalq, agrees that this partnership is necessary. He states that Brazil already has solid health and environmental legislation and needs to defend these points in international negotiations.
Furthermore, each sector must be prepared for the rules of the country it wishes to serve, he says. This makes it easier to negotiate the terms of sales by product, for example, than on a broader scope, he says.
