
AI-generated summary
Putin spoke at the Valdai think tank's annual debate, a day after Russia sent a note to NATO warning of a nuclear response if the bloc attacks Kaliningrad. The region is separated from the main Russian territory by the Baltic States. The speech comes amid the escalation of Russian bombings on Ukraine and after Western sanctions for the 2022 invasion.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has reiterated his threat to Europe, including a possible nuclear war. "Escalation is never unilateral. The point of no return can arrive very quickly and unexpectedly for everyone," declared the Russian leader during his speech this Thursday, at the annual debate of the Valdai think tank.
“We must avoid catastrophic scenarios, in which humanity finds itself on the brink of extinction,” the leader remarked a day after his Government sent a note to NATO warning that Russia will respond with its entire arsenal if the bloc attacks the Kaliningrad region, separated from the rest of the country by the Baltic States.
Putin has raised a hypothesis, aggression against Russia, which NATO denies. However, the president has mentioned as pretexts for "an escalation" the Alliance's military exercises in the Baltic Sea and the detention of Russian ships, although without specifying whether he was referring to vessels subject to sanctions for the invasion of Ukraine or any type of ship. This same Thursday, the Border Guard stopped and inspected a cargo ship that was en route to the Estonian port of Sillamäe, according to the Postimees newspaper.
The Russian leader emphasized during the debate that his notification to NATO "was not intimidation", but "a response" to "statements by Western and European politicians about the need to prepare for a possible war with Russia in 2029 or 2030."
“If there is a direct attack against the Russian Federation, in this case Kaliningrad, or perhaps also other territories, the use of all available weapons will immediately appear on the agenda. This is inevitable," added Putin, who emphasized during his speech that 98% of its nuclear weapons have been updated. "No other nuclear power has such a level of modernity," he added.
The invasion of Ukraine will continue in 2027
Putin has assumed that the invasion of Ukraine will continue throughout 2027. “Regardless of the general outlook for next year, unfortunately, it is very likely that international conflicts will continue,” he said, with his usual cold view of international relations: “The changes and opportunities that arise fuel ambitions and the willingness to take risks in search of a supposedly great advantage.”
The Russian president has assured that European concern about a possible conflict with Moscow responds "to the economy, social policy and the standard of living of citizens in the largest European countries." “They urgently need their citizens to stop focusing on internal problems and focus on external ones,” Putin said a day after his Government presented budgets with social cuts everywhere, widespread tax increases and 44% of total spending destined to pay for his army and security forces.
The leader has insisted that Ukraine, or at least a large part of it, is “historical Russian territory.” “When restoring its historical regions, Russia will start from the premise that Russian citizens reside there,” Putin has reaffirmed about the occupied territories. Furthermore, he has once again mentioned that what he considers the Russian world goes beyond the borders of the Russian Federation. “The collapse of the USSR was a true tragedy for tens of millions of people who suddenly found themselves abroad, their lives transformed,” he declared.
In the midst of the escalation of Russian bombings against Ukrainian cities, Putin has repeated a mantra that is denied every day by images of Russian missiles and drones destroying civilian buildings. “The Russian armed forces have always been guided by the inviolability of humanitarian norms. "We have never been the first to attack targets that are not directly part of the enemy's military infrastructure," the president said.
“It was not Russia that started the war, but they began to fight against Russia,” Putin also added during his speech.
The Russian president believes that the old UN order and its international rules have disappeared. “The whole world, East and West, North and South, sooner or later will have to agree on the principles of a new world order,” he predicted during the debate.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The invasion of Ukraine will last until 2027
Likely · Within years
Russia will respond with nuclear weapons if NATO attacks Kaliningrad
Possible · Within months

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