Putin receives the best birthday gift from Trump

US President Donald Trump did not congratulate the head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, on his 74th birthday. But he gave him the best of gifts, lifting the sanctions against Russian fuel exports in force since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.

Putin, who had his birthday on October 7, had told him on several occasions: an energy truce between Russia and Ukraine would not solve the problems that afflict the international market. In his opinion, only the resumption of pumping of Russian oil and petroleum products would do so.

Aware that reaching an agreement with Iran now seems impossible, Trump chose this week to end the ban on buying Russian oil, gas and coal, in force since April 1, 2022.

An unexpected lifesaver

The news could not have come at a better time for Putin, who wants to approve at all costs a war budget for the next three years with defense spending of 600 billion dollars.

Russia, whose profits from hydrocarbon exports have fallen 17% this year despite rising crude oil prices, has had to raise taxes and take other unpopular austerity measures to balance the books. The economy is stagnant and the public deficit already represents 2.2% of GDP and, according to predictions, it will reach 3% by the end of the year, double what was expected.

Russian experts are aware that Trump's decision is temporary as he faces elections on November 3, but, at the same time, they consider it a confirmation that, in reality, "there is no isolation of Russia," only a Western blockade.

Trump "has had to resort to desperate measures to improve his popularity ratings and avoid defeat. We, for our part, took advantage of this and put pressure on Trump and his Administration within the framework of the peace process," admitted political scientist Malek Dudakov to local media.

Now, Russia has fewer reasons than ever to negotiate a ceasefire, at least as long as the agreement lasts, April 2027. In fact, during their telephone conversation on Friday, Putin assured that he will think about "when" the tripartite negotiations stalled since February can be resumed.

Zelensky's anger

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did not hesitate to show his anger by describing the agreement between Trump as "a gift" to Putin and as something "unbecoming of an ally." He was supported by the European Union and numerous US congressmen, both Republicans and Democrats who had supported the latest package of sanctions against Moscow.

Days before, Zelensky had already denounced the American hypocrisy of doing business with Russia, while regretting "the deadlock" in the peace negotiations. Furthermore, this comes after the deaths of more than 100 Ukrainian civilians in the last week, according to the UN.

"Trump and Zelensky never got along," said Fyodor Lukianov, an international relations specialist. The reason is well known, Zelensky's refusal to cooperate with Trump to prosecute the son of former president Joe Biden (Hunter) for his dark business dealings in Ukraine.

According to Axios, Trump tried to convince Zelensky up to six times to stop attacks on Russian refineries, but in exchange he asked that Moscow stop bombing its energy infrastructure. That is, he asked for an energy truce, but Washington demanded unilateral concessions unacceptable to kyiv.

For Trump, the Ukrainian and Russian attacks are not the same, since the former "also harm the United States." The president himself confirmed it on Saturday: "We told him 'you can do what you want with Russia, but don't attack the refineries,' because that is a global problem that he is causing. And he wants to create problems for the world, problems for our farmers, our ranchers, with diesel fuel, because Russia supplies a large part of the diesel fuel around the world."

He did not stop there, as he adopted one of the favorite arguments of Russian propaganda: "The time has come for Ukraine to have a new president."

And now what?

"Ukraine will do everything possible to torpedo the agreement," predicts Lukyanov. For now, on Friday the Ukrainians attacked a refinery in the Siberian region of Omsk, about 3,000 kilometers from the border, and on Saturday an oil terminal in the southern region of Rostov.

Since June, Ukrainian drones have hit around thirty Russian refineries, some of which have had to suspend operations, reducing national processing capacity to the levels of twenty years ago.

Another expert, Alexei Mukhin, warns that "now the US is interested in stopping attacks against Russian refineries, but after November 3 it will no longer be interested. Russia does not have to be guided by what interests the US or Ukraine. We must ensure that the Ukrainian army cannot engage in terrorist activities on the territory of the Russian Federation."