What is the “polar vortex” whose disruption could cause a cold episode in November?

Are we going to have to take out hats, gloves and other winter accessories earlier than expected? In any case, a “sudden stratospheric warming”, leading to a disruption of the “polar vortex” is envisaged around November 6, indicates La Chaîne Météo *. The “polar vortex” is a mass of cold air located above the Arctic. Its disruption by “sudden stratospheric warming” can modify atmospheric circulation, favor the descent of cold air and thus lower temperatures.

A premature phenomenon

This phenomenon is not rare, recalls the Weather Channel. At this time of year, the polar vortex is supposed to be in full formation. As for “sudden stratospheric warming,” they generally occur about two out of three winters.

“On the other hand, their appearance at the beginning of November would be exceptional,” indicates the Weather Channel, which speaks of a historic event. “If the major stratospheric warming envisaged around November 6, 2026 is confirmed, it would beat by more than three weeks the previous record for precocity, established on November 28, 1968.” Usually, this detachment occurs around the months of January and February, often leading to the arrival of cold waves. The El Nino climatic phenomenon, currently at a record level, is likely to amplify this decline.

“Perhaps a turning point”

A disruption of the “polar vortex” is therefore not without consequences on our daily lives: descents of polar air may occur towards Europe and cause the mercury to drop. If this is confirmed, the probability of cold episodes will be increased “from the second half of November and in December”.

The Weather Channel, however, wants to be cautious. The winter still looks set to be mild overall and the intensity, duration and regions affected by possible cold episodes still remain very uncertain. “We may be at a turning point in atmospheric circulation this fall, but not yet at that of our winter forecasts,” she concludes.