The end of the 6x1 work schedule and zero tax on the basic food basket are the campaign promises that Brazilians consider priorities in the fourth term of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), according to a Quaest survey released this Sunday (8).
Faced with a list of 15 commitments made by the PT member in the election, 17% of those interviewed chose the reduction of working hours as the most important, and 16%, the exemption of basic foods. As the margin of error is two percentage points, the two are technically tied.
Next comes the increase in the minimum wage (11%), the Pact Against Feminicide (10%) and the expansion of Farmácia Popular, with teleconsultations and free exams (8%). None of the other promises exceed 7%.
One of the two most cited already has a date to come into force: with the tax reform, the basic basket will have zero tax from January 1, 2027.
The other advanced on the eve of the second round. On October 14, the Senate approved the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) that reduces the weekly working day from 44 to 40 hours, with two mandatory days off, without a salary cut and with a transition rule. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), Lula's opponent in the dispute, criticized the proposal, but changed his position and voted in favor.
Quaest also wanted to know what worries voters most about the new government. The question was only asked to those who declared themselves more concerned than optimistic about the country's future, a group that makes up 48% of the sample.
In this portion, 27% point to the economy, spending and public debt and interest. Public safety and violence come next, with 17%. Corruption and governance, including the relationship with Congress, are tied at 12% each.
Concern about the economy is greater among those who say they are right-wing, but not Bolsonaro supporters. Of this group, 44% mention the topic.
The discussion about public accounts dominated the beginning of the transition to Lula 4. According to the Central Bank, gross debt reached 82.9% of GDP in September, and the Treasury projects 83.7% at the end of the year, an increase of 5.1 percentage points compared to 2025. Since the election result, the dollar has risen and the Stock Exchange has fallen.
On Wednesday (4), the BC maintained the Selic at 13.75% per year and interrupted a sequence of five cuts. The Minister of Finance, Dario Durigan, said that the adjustment measures will only be presented in the second half of November, when Lula returns from the international agenda.
In public security, the government's main focus is the PEC, which expands the Union's role in the area. The Senate approved the text on Tuesday (3) and it is headed for promulgation. Lula had conditioned the creation of the Ministry of Public Security, another campaign promise, on the approval of the proposal. In the survey, the new portfolio was highlighted as a priority by 2% of voters.
The PT member begins the new term with 48% approval and 44% disapproval, a positive balance of four points. When comparing Quaest itself with Datafolha surveys carried out immediately after each re-election, it is the lowest balance among re-elected presidents.
In December 2006, after his first re-election, Lula had a balance of 38 points. Dilma Rousseff (PT) had 18 points in December 2014, and Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB), 10 points in December 1998. Until 2014 the question measured was an evaluation question, from excellent to terrible, and the institute converted the results into approval.
Respondents also expect more friction with the Legislature. For 70%, the new mandate will have more conflict with Congress than the last year of the current government, and 18% expect less.
In December 2022, before the start of the third term, 48% predicted more conflict. On that occasion, however, the question compared the new government to that of Jair Bolsonaro (PL).
From 2027 onwards, Lula will deal with a Congress that is more to the right than in previous terms. PL and Novo will have 131 of the 513 deputies (25%) and 32 of the 81 senators (39%). According to Folha's Ideological GPS, 59% of elected deputies are from right-wing parties, a share that in the Senate reaches 64%.
The first test will be on February 1, when both Houses elect their presidents. In the Senate, the government must work for the re-election of Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil-AP), who could face Rogério Marinho (PL-RN) or Tereza Cristina (PP-MS).
The environment, nevertheless, is less pessimistic than at the end of 2022. Today, 48% say they are more concerned about the country's future and 44%, more optimistic. It is the shortest distance in the series, which began in October of that year. Regardless of their vote, 94% say they hope that Lula will lead a good government.
Quaest, hired by the newspaper O Globo, personally interviewed 2,004 voters between October 30th and November 2nd. The confidence level is 95%.
