Low water levels on the Rhine hardly lead to more truck traffic

Berlin. The low water on the Rhine has not led to a significant shift in transport from inland waterways to the road. The mileage of toll trucks with at least four axles grew by 0.6 percent in August compared to the previous month, as the Federal Statistical Office announced on Wednesday. This was the second increase in a row, but it was lower than the 0.8 percent in July. The level of the same month last year was exceeded by 2.0 percent in August.

On Europe's most important waterway, the Rhine, water levels have reached record lows in recent weeks, severely hampering inland shipping. Several federal states have therefore temporarily relaxed the Sunday driving ban for certain trucks in order to prevent material and supply bottlenecks.

“The low water levels could have given a greater boost to truck transport,” said Alexander Krüger, chief economist at Bank Bethmann HAL. “However, truck and driver capacities are limited, which is why not all goods may have been transported.” However, transporting goods by road maintains supply chains.

Commerzbank economist Ralph Solveen also advises not to overinterpret the August value. “I also don’t think that the low water levels in the rivers played a decisive role here,” emphasized Solveen.

The Federal Association of Road Haulage, Logistics and Waste Disposal (BGL) points to the shortage of skilled workers. “The limiting factor in road freight transport is the shortage of truck drivers that is rampant throughout Europe,” said BGL board spokesman Dirk Engelhardt. There is already a shortage of at least 100,000 truck drivers in Germany alone. “And the problem gets bigger every year because around 30,000 to 35,000 truck drivers retire every year, but only 15,000 to 20,000 new ones come in,” warned Engelhardt.

Truck traffic on German highways is considered a harbinger of economic activity, as economic activity generates and requires transport services: “Therefore, there is a clear connection between the truck toll mileage index and indices of economic activity, especially industrial production,” explained the statistics office.

Since the truck toll mileage data is available about a month earlier than that for production, it is considered an early signal of economic developments. The restricted inland shipping is slowing down production, but not strangling it, said chief economist Krüger about the current development: “This means that there is hope for further economic growth.”

German industry has struggled recently. The order books are now more full than ever since the statistics began in 2015. The German economy as a whole grew more robustly than expected in the first half of the year, despite the burdens caused by the Iran war. Institutes have therefore raised their forecasts for gross domestic product growth this year – to up to 1.4 percent.