Behind the scenes of Riyadh attacks: The real danger is different! What is the new missile power?

The escalating tension in Saudi Arabia's fight against the Houthi movement in Yemen has brought the security balances of the region back to the agenda. The attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh has increased concerns that the conflict may not be limited to Yemen.

Passengers trying to move through the dense dust cloud and debris that formed in the airport terminal after the attack revealed the impact of the incident on civilian infrastructure. While there were casualties in the attack in question, the developments brought into question the impact of the conflicts in Yemen on the regional balance of power, as well as the security of Saudi Arabia.

'THE EVENTS IN THE LAST WEEK CHANGED THE NATURE OF THE CONFLICT'

Oral Toğa, one of the researchers at the Center for Iranian Studies (IRAM), said, "What has happened in the last week has changed the nature of the Saudi Arabia-Houthi conflict. The conflict is no longer limited to the border areas; it has moved to a stage where the capital and civilian infrastructure are directly targeted. King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh was hit four times in five days. When you look at the background, the picture becomes clearer. The UN-supervised ceasefire, which has been functioning to a large extent since 2022, has actually collapsed."

-- The Houthis declared a blockade of Saudi ships in July and rapidly advanced along the Red Sea coast in September. It was reported that Muha and the positions around Babülmandeb were taken back in the Saudi-backed counter-offensive that started at the beginning of October. The wave of attacks on the airport came immediately after this counter-attack. In other words, an action-reaction cycle operates in the field. The real issue for Saudi Arabia's security is this: While Hormuz was closed, Riyadh turned to the Red Sea for energy exports. The Houthis are targeting exactly this alternative and the country's perception of internal security.

-- In terms of the balance of power, it was once again seen how much the military capacity of the Houthis has developed over the years. However, the table should not be read one-sidedly. Saudi Arabia is not alone this time. The involvement of the Mecca Defense Alliance and the solidarity from the countries in the region show that Riyadh has a broad diplomatic base behind it.

THE ATTACK ON THE AIRPORT BROUGHT AIR DEFENSE ON THE AGENDA

The attack on King Khalid International Airport raised questions about the effectiveness of Saudi Arabia's air defense systems and the protection of critical infrastructures. Military experts state that the characteristics of the missile used and prevention attempts should be examined to determine whether the attack directly points to the inadequacy of air defense systems.

According to the news in The Telegraph, Danny Citrinowicz, an expert at the Israeli National Security Studies Institute and former Israeli military intelligence commander, pointed out that the nature of the ammunition used in the attack raises important questions. Citrinowicz stated that it is not known how many missiles Saudi Arabia blocked, but the ability of some munitions to reach their targets requires an evaluation of the warheads and missile technology used.

Citrinowicz also reminded the news that Iran may have shared with the Houthis the experience it gained from the conflicts with the USA and Israel, and stated that changes may have been made that could make it harder to intercept the missiles.

Assessments that the Houthis have improved their missile capacity in recent years and are turning to more advanced systems also highlight the military dimension of the attack. However, without definitive information about which missile system was used in the attack, no definitive conclusion can be drawn about the characteristics of the ammunition used.

THREE CRITICAL REASONS BEHIND THE MISSILE THREAT

Saying that "King Khalid Airport is not actually a new target of the Houthis," Oral Toğa said, "Missiles were fired at Riyadh in 2017 and 2018, and they were largely intercepted in the air. This time, the missiles reached the target and the terminals were hit," and the expert shared the following information, underlining that this situation shows three things:

-- First, no air defense system provides complete protection. It becomes very difficult to defend, especially in attacks where ballistic missiles and UAVs are used together. Second, attrition. Saudi air defense has been operating almost continuously since February. First in the Iran war, now against the Houthis. A significant portion of Saudi systems are US-made, and the Pentagon Inspector General noted last month that there were strategic vulnerabilities in interceptor ammunition.

-- Third and most importantly, the nature of the target. A large, civilian facility such as an airport cannot be defended like a military base. The attacker's aim here is not to achieve military results, but to disrupt daily life and the economy. As a matter of fact, hundreds of flights were canceled and some international airlines stopped their flights to Riyadh. There is a similar picture in terms of critical infrastructure. The East-West oil pipeline was also targeted in September. Saudi Arabia's response appears to have two prongs: strengthening defenses on the one hand, and hitting launch points at the source on the other. The coalition's announcement that it destroyed three missile launchers is a sign of this. That is why it is meaningful that Türkiye's possible contribution is concentrated in this field of defense, that is, equipment and technical support.

POSSIBLE INTERVENTION OF THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS BEING DISCUSSED

Following the attack, assessments that US President Donald Trump may resort to new military operations against Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen increased concerns that the conflict could spread to a wider area.

However, the Washington administration is expected to evaluate the possible consequences before launching a comprehensive military operation against the Houthis. In particular, developments in the group's missile capacity and possible threats to the US military presence in the region are among the determining factors in the decision process.

The status of the USA's long-range missile and air defense ammunition stocks following the conflicts with Iran is also a matter of debate. It is assessed that a comprehensive operation against the Houthis could lead the group to target US forces in Jordan or the United Arab Emirates. For Washington, this situation brings up not only the cost of a new military operation, but also the possibility of the conflict getting out of control.

Also in the news in the Telegraph, Bridget Toomey, who works on the Houthis at the US-based Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, argues that the developments in Yemen cannot be evaluated independently of Iran's regional strategy. Toomey states that regional relations, including actors such as Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as the Houthis, should be taken into account in Washington's security calculations.

Citrinowicz also states that the Trump administration may be cautious about entering into a direct and comprehensive war against the Houthis. The expert points out that it is easy to enter such a conflict, but getting out of the conflict can be difficult.

'THE POSSIBILITY OF REGIONAL WAR DEPENDS ON OTHER VARIABLES'

To what extent do Saudi Arabia's statement that it will give a serious response to the attacks and the Yemeni army's operations against the Houthis increase the risk of the conflict turning into a wider regional war?

Oral Toğa answered my question, "It increases the risk, it must be said clearly. But it is necessary to distinguish between the expansion of the war in Yemen and the possibility of it turning into a regional war," and continued as follows:

-- First, it's already happening. Coalition Spokesperson Major General Turki al-Maliki described the airport attack as an act of terrorism and announced that a decisive response would be given. The Houthis also declared Saudi airspace a military operation zone and warned the airlines. In other words, the action-reaction cycle is accelerating on the Yemen front. The possibility of regional war depends on other variables. The real risk is that the Yemen front will be linked to the US-Iran war. Trump's statement that the United States may participate in operations against the Houthis should be watched carefully in this respect. Such a step could turn the conflict in Yemen into a front of the Iran war.

-- On the other hand, there are also brakes. Türkiye's attitude is the clearest example of this. Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan emphasized that the Mecca Agreement was a defensive agreement, not an attack. He also clearly said that Türkiye will not send soldiers to attack another country's territory. This sends the message that the alliance will not turn into an offensive alliance against Yemen. Saudi Arabia's own experience is also a brake. Riyadh waged a long and costly war in Yemen from 2015 to 2022. He knows better than anyone that the stability required by Vision 2030 cannot go together with a long war. The ongoing contacts between Washington and Tehran are also another brake.

THE ATTITUDE OF REGIONAL ACTORS IS GAINING IMPORTANCE

The diplomatic stance of regional countries in the face of escalating conflicts in Yemen and attacks against Saudi Arabia is also important. The joint condemnation statement of Türkiye, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan brought to the agenda the discussions of establishing a common attitude against the attacks at the regional level and preventing the spread of tension.

It is evaluated that the steps taken by the countries in the region may be effective not only in terms of the response to the attacks, but also in preventing a new wave of conflict. Diplomatic contacts, keeping communication channels open between the parties and attempts to reduce tension are among the prominent topics in terms of regional stability.

However, it remains unclear to what extent the joint statements will reflect the developments on the field and whether the parties will limit their military steps.

How do you evaluate the joint condemnation statement of Türkiye, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan? What role can regional actors play in reducing tensions and preventing the spread of conflict?

Oral Toğa commented on this question as follows:

The Mecca Defense Alliance consists of Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Egypt is also included in this statement. In other words, beyond the military alliance, a broader diplomatic framework is at play. The four countries have been consulting in this format for some time; They also met in Cairo in June.

Egypt's presence is also significant because instability in the Red Sea directly affects the Egyptian economy through the Suez Canal. The language of the statement is also striking. The Houthis were not mentioned in the October 5 Mecca statement. It is clearly mentioned in this statement. This shows that the airport attack has crossed a threshold for the countries in the region. On the other hand, the support given to the measures to be taken by Saudi Arabia is bound to the framework of the UN Charter and international law.

In other words, the support is not unlimited, but is given within a legal framework. As for the role of regional actors, I think three areas stand out. First, deterrence. Strengthening Saudi Arabia's defenses reduces the returns of attacks. This reduces the incentive to escalate. Second, keeping the channels open. Türkiye's stance has two legs in this respect.

Hakan Fidan emphasizes, on the one hand, supporting the defense of Saudi Arabia and, on the other hand, making efforts to solve the problem through peace and dialogue. Pakistan's mediation experience in the US-Iran talks and Oman's channel with the Houthis are also valuable in this respect.

Third, and in my opinion the most critical, the conflict in Yemen should be kept separate from the Iran-US war. The common interest of the countries in the region is that Yemen does not become the front of a larger war. There is a basis for this. The road map announced by the UN at the end of 2023 is still a valid reference for a permanent ceasefire and political process. The main goal should be to return to that ground after today's climb.