Is Russia getting ready for a confrontation with Poland? The expert has no illusions: An obvious scenario
Ukraine's External Intelligence Service warns against Russian escalation plans as the US establishes energy cooperation with the Kremlin.
Quick Look
- Ukrainian intelligence warns against Russian plans for conflict with Poland and the Baltic states until 2045.
- At the same time, the US concluded an agreement with Russia on the supply of 5 million tons of diesel oil, which raises concerns about the security of allies.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Ukrainian intelligence warns against Russia's long-term plans for confrontation with NATO countries. The US decided to allow Russian fuel on the market.
The External Intelligence Service of Ukraine (SZRU) reported that Russia is preparing for an armed conflict with Poland and a controlled crisis in the eastern part of NATO. Moreover, they estimate that there are nearly 400 Russian agents operating in Europe. Things aren't looking good for Ukraine - Donald Trump is threatening to cut off its intelligence.
Additionally, in recent days the American leader has concluded an agreement on the supply of 5 million tons of Russian diesel to the world market.
"This winter could be a breakthrough"
Presenter Piotr Salak notes that reports of another planned conflict on the part of Russia appear at a time of problems between Washington and Kiev. The United States threatens Ukraine with cutting off, among other things, intelligence data.
Ukrainians are raising the alarm because they are in a difficult situation. This winter could be a turning point. Ukraine and we would also prefer that this breakthrough was not to Russia's advantage - explains the former Polish ambassador to Latvia and Armenia.
According to SZRU, the Kremlin is developing scenarios of direct armed conflict with Poland and the Baltic states. According to Ukrainian assessments, Russia plans confrontation with Europe by 2045.
This is the obvious scenario the Russians are working on. We are preparing for this. Finland, the Baltic states and Western allies are also preparing for a scenario of controlled escalation from Russia, he said.
Ukraine additionally informed that there may be as many as 400 Russian agents throughout Europe. This is very optimistic knowledge. I thought there were 4,000 of them, said Jerzy Marek Nowakowski.
Problems caused by diesel fuel from Russia?
On October 11, Donald Trump concluded an agreement with Putin regarding the supply of Russian diesel oil. The United States Department of the Treasury issued a temporary license allowing the supply of almost 5 million tons of fuel to the American and global markets. This is more than disturbing, it is very bad news, comments the ambassador.
The RMF24 Radio guest also notes that Trump puts America's interests first. He claims that for him, the alliance with Putin ensuring oil supplies is more important than the security of America's allies. Americans tell the truth that Europeans buy Russian gas in various ways. It is said that hypocrisy is crime's tribute to virtue. The Americans said directly that it is okay to do business with Putin, he emphasized.
"Let's hurry to love Trump"
The diplomat emphasizes that Europe must strive for good relations with America so as not to face similar consequences as Ukraine. Isolationist thinking in the United States is very strong at the moment. Let's hurry to love Trump, because his successors will be even worse - notes the guest of Radio RMF24.
The columnist states that the thinking of the young generation of American politicians is constantly evolving and may be heading in the wrong direction. They believe that they need to reform the country, control the situation in regions close to America and compete with China. Europe is far away on the map of American priorities, concluded Jerzy Marek Nowakowski.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Continued tensions in US-Ukraine relations over intelligence sharing.
Likely · Within months
Open Questions
- What specific intelligence data will be withheld from Ukraine?
- Will the fuel agreement affect the sanctions imposed on Russia?







