With air safety under the microscope after a spate of runway conflicts in Sydney, new research says incidents have significantly risen at Australian airports in the last 22 years.
Since late July, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) has opened six investigations into runway incursions and taxiing occurrences at Sydney Airport, with the two most recent cases announced on Wednesday.
The ATSB said on August 16, air traffic control told a Virgin 737 to give way to a Qantas 737 leaving the runway but the instruction was not relayed correctly and the mistake went unnoticed by air control.
On August 25, incomplete traffic information was passed to a Jetstar Airbus A320, which resulted in a Bombardier Dash 8 taxiing behind the aircraft.
The ATSB said only one incident, in which a Jetstar crew member was injured on August 9, had been categorised as a "near collision".
It said a second incident has been classed as a "serious incident", while the remaining four had only met the threshold for "incidents".
The incidents piqued the interest of Graham Wild, an aviation discipline coordinator at the University of New South Wales (UNSW), who identified a broader pattern of incidents increasing across Australian airports.
With a specific focus on runway incursions and taxiing collisions or near collisions, Dr Wild analysed data from the ATSB from 2003 to 2025.
In his analysis, Dr Wild measured the count and rate of occurrences per million flight hours, to assess whether runway incursions and taxiing incidents were rising faster than the amount of flying.
He found for domestic aviation, taxiing collisions or near-collision occurrences increased on average by about one additional occurrence every three years.
For commercial air transport, which includes regional, charter and freight aircraft, Dr Wild found the number of runway incursions increased on average by about three additional occurrences every two years.
Dr Wild said overall there was a trend of safety improving but the ultimate goal in the aviation sector was to achieve a zero figure.
"[If] we had modern surveillance [like] what we do with drones … in terms of knowing where aircraft are and having a more connected system, technology would solve a lot of those problems," he said.
'Consistent with average reporting levels'
A spokesperson for Airservices Australia said that "reporting and examining operational incidents is an important part of the aviation safety system".
The spokesperson said since January 2021 it reported on average about 34 occurrences per month at Sydney Airport.
In comparison, there were on average 21 monthly occurrences reported at Brisbane Airport, and 12 at Melbourne Airport.
"The number of reports made by Airservices to the ATSB regarding occurrences in Sydney during August is consistent with average reporting levels," the spokesperson added.
A spokesperson for Sydney Airport said safety was its "highest priority" but said it would be "inappropriate to speculate" while ATSB investigations were underway.
Earlier this month, ATSB chief commissioner Angus Mitchell said as part of its "wide-ranging" investigations, understaffing issues within the airport's air traffic control fleet would be scrutinised.
Civil Air president Scott Nugent previously told the ABC that air traffic control resources were stretched and Sydney Airport relied on staff doing excessive overtime, with some potentially working 20 extra hours a week.
Future of air traffic control safety
Uğur Turhan, who specialises in air traffic management, airport operations and aviation safety at UNSW, said Australia had a strong and transparent aviation safety culture.
He said the recent series of incidents, which remain under ATSB investigation, had understandably placed air traffic controllers under increased professional pressure and public scrutiny.
Dr Turhan said strategic planning was important for the future air traffic control workforce.
He said digital towers, which will be used for operations at Western Sydney Internation Airport (WSI) when it opens in late October, could lead Australia's technology and safety protocols.
Unlike Sydney Airport's manned-air traffic control tower, WSI's air traffic controllers will be stationed at a data centre 20-kilometres away from where the planes will be flying.
It marks Australia's first digital air traffic control system off the tarmac.
"With digital tower technology, controllers can have additional information and decision support aids such as aircraft tracking and enhanced visual information, which can support their situational awareness," Dr Turhan said.
Managing director for Aviation Projects Keith Tonkin said progress was already underway to integrate Australia's civilian and defence traffic management systems into one.
He pointed to the OneSky Project, an initiative that would technologically advance air traffic control and safety.
The program was announced in 2014 and has faced significant scheduling and cost challenges, but Mr Tonkin was hopeful for a 2027 rollout.
He said by integrating the systems, there would be more efficient use of airspace as better information would be available to allocate aircraft into the airspace.
"It also will mean that air traffic controllers will be able to be more effective and be able to more easily adapt to changes in the airspace system," he said.
"And the idea is that they won't need quite as much training to change roles or to change the different parts of the airspace that they're controlling."
Investigations ongoing
In a statement to the ABC an ATSB spokesperson said in its investigations, it would seek to establish or rule out any underlying safety issues and contributing factors common across the incidents at Sydney Airport.
"In each incident there was a level of safety defence, such as the actions of pilots, controllers and ground crews, that has prevented more serious outcomes from occurring," the spokesperson said.
"But our investigations will seek to provide assurances around the safety defences in place, and any steps that can be taken to prevent reoccurrences."
A spokesperson for the Civil Aviation Safety Authority said it was looking closely into air traffic control at Sydney tower and would "not hesitate to act" if any broader safety concerns emerged.
"While the ATSB examines what happened in each incident, our focus is on whether there are any underlying operational or system issues that could affect safety," the spokesperson said.
"The aviation system is designed around managing errors with multiple safeguards in place, and based on the information currently available, none of the incidents indicate an immediate safety risk requiring urgent regulatory action."
Qantas and Virgin Australia are working closely with the ATSB, but declined to comment further when contacted by the ABC.
