Politico EU45 minutes agoDefense2 min read

Russian attack on European weapons factory should trigger Article 5, says EU defense chief

Andrius Kubilius warns that aerial bombardment of arms facilities on EU soil would invoke NATO's mutual defense clause.

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EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius stated that a Russian aerial attack on a European weapons factory should trigger NATO's Article 5.
The warning follows a series of suspicious incidents at arms facilities across Europe and recent threats from Moscow.

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Why It Matters

Estonia recently attributed an arson attack on Milrem Robotics to Russian secret services. Russia has threatened that arms factories producing for Ukraine are potential military targets.

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BRUSSELS — A Russian bombing attack on a European weapons factory should trigger NATO's Article 5 mutual defense clause, the EU's top defense official said Thursday.

The call comes in the wake of a growing number of suspicious incidents at arms factories across Europe, some of which have been attributed to Russia.

"If Russia will hit our factories in European territories, that would be Article 5," European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius told Polish television on the margins of a meeting of the European Parliament's Defence and Security Committee.

The remarks come after Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova on Wednesday warned that "weapons factories in European countries that produce arms for Ukraine are potential military targets for Russia."

NATO chief Mark Rutte this week issued a strong rebuke of Moscow after Russia sent a note to the alliance threatening nuclear escalation over NATO activity near its border.

This week, Estonia said Russian secret services were behind last month's arson attack on arms contractor Milrem Robotics. Bulgaria, Poland, Slovakia and other countries are also investigating similar suspicious incidents.

An aide to Kubilius, granted anonymity to speak freely, confirmed that the commissioner's comments related specifically to an aerial bombardment or missile attack on a factory.

Yet Kubilius' statement is likely to stir unease within NATO given the sensitivity of discussions around Article 5 and the EU's non-military role compared to the alliance.

"When Kubilius will become secretary general of NATO he might be able to claim what triggers or doesn’t trigger Article 5," one NATO diplomat said.

NATO didn't immediately respond to a request for comment by POLITICO.

Moscow and NATO have exchanged tense letters in recent days following Russian opposition to alliance exercises near its Kaliningrad exclave.

Russia’s rising hybrid activity on Svalbard is sparking fears that Moscow could spark an incident that tests NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause.

NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe U.S. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich wants more information on escalating hybrid threats.

Carsten Breuer — widely seen as the front-runner — beat out Canada’s Jennie Carignan for the role of NATO military committee chair.

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

Continued investigations into sabotage at European arms factories.
Very likely · Within months

Open Questions

Will NATO officially adopt Kubilius' interpretation of Article 5?
What specific evidence links Russia to the Milrem Robotics attack?

Russian attack on European weapons factory should trigger Article 5, says EU defense chief

Andrius Kubilius warns that aerial bombardment of arms facilities on EU soil would invoke NATO's mutual defense clause.

Quick Look

EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius stated that a Russian aerial attack on a European weapons factory should trigger NATO's Article 5.
The warning follows a series of suspicious incidents at arms facilities across Europe and recent threats from Moscow.