Russian crude production rebounds after Trump diesel deal, IEA says as oil markets return to surplus

Russia's crude oil production rose to 8.73 million barrels a day in October, a 210,000-barrel-a-day surge, as a rebound in Gulf shipments pushes oil markets into a surplus for the first time since the Middle East conflict began, the International Energy Agency said Friday.

Global supply and stocks have both swelled, though Middle East disruptions and attacks on Russian energy infrastructure tightened diesel supply, according to the agency's latest monthly oil market report.

"Persistent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure continue to choke off the country's diesel supplies to international markets, adding to losses from the Middle East," the IEA noted.

U.S. President Donald Trump struck a deal with President Vladimir Putin to supply diesel to global markets on Oct. 9. The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued a general license authorizing certain transactions involving Russian-origin diesel through April 7, 2027.

Crude supply can rise even as diesel remains tight, with refinery capacity and refined product exports still constrained.

Global oil supply reached 105.4 million barrels a day in October, up 2.3 million barrels a day from September, the IEA said, adding that supply rose by an "extraordinary" 5.3 million barrels a day since August, despite ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure and tankers.

Inventories also rose for the first time since June, with observed global stocks increasing by 52 million barrels in October, or 1.7 million barrels a day.

"The oil market is showing tentative signs of rebalancing, with global oil supplies surpassing demand for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran," IEA analysts observed.

Higher export flows have strengthened supply expectations for the fourth quarter, with Middle East and Russia losses partly offset by growth from the U.S., Canada, Brazil, Argentina and Guyana, which together are set to boost output by 1.6 million barrels a day this year.

The IEA has raised its fourth-quarter supply estimate by 3.3 million barrels a day, and now forecasts a 6.6 million barrels per day increase in 2027.