Russian gas export price forecast for China in 2026-2029
Draft federal budget documents outline baseline and conservative pricing projections for gas supplies to China
Quick Look
- Russian federal budget documents project gas export prices to China will rise by 3% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 before stabilizing.
- Gazprom remains the leading gas supplier to China, exceeding contractual obligations in 2025 via the Power of Siberia pipeline.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Gazprom is the primary gas supplier to China, utilizing the Power of Siberia pipeline for deliveries.
MOSCOW, October 2. /TASS/. Prices for Russian gas to be supplied to China could rise by 3% in 2026, and by 1.4% in 2027, and return to this year’s level in 2028-2029, according to files to the draft federal budget for 2027-2029 seen by TASS. The document has been uploaded to the lower house of parliament’s electronic database.
According to the baseline forecast, the price of gas supplied to China will total $247.9 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2026 (compared to $240.3 in 2025), $251.3 in 2027, $247.8 in 2028, and $246.4 in 2029.
According to the conservative forecast, the price for China could be $239.2 in 2027, $235.8 in 2028, and $234.7 in 2029.
In 2025, Gazprom became the largest gas exporter to China. Supplies via the Power of Siberia gas pipeline reached 38.8 bln cubic meters, 800 mln cubic meters above the initial contractual obligations.
Open Questions
- What specific market factors drive the conservative vs baseline forecasts?
