Marmara University History Department Lecturer Prof. Dr. İlyas Kemaloğlu wrote about the energy agreement reached between Russia and the USA and the energy ceasefire agenda in the Russia-Ukraine War for AA Analysis.
As the Russia-Ukraine War approaches its fifth year, US President Donald Trump announced on October 9 that an agreement was reached for Russia to supply diesel fuel to the US and global markets. These announcements of Trump, who announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine two days later, once again brought the energy dimension of the war to the agenda. The implementation of the agreements announced by the American President will be beneficial to many countries as well as the relevant countries, and can also be considered as promising developments in terms of establishing a multifaceted ceasefire between the two Slavic countries.
Energy dimension of the Russia-Ukraine War
In fact, long before the war, the energy issue was causing controversy between Russia and Ukraine and between Russia and the European Union (EU), especially as the winter months approached. The fact that Ukraine was forced to pay for the natural gas it received from Russia, Moscow cut off the gas it sent to Ukraine in return, and Ukraine tried to meet its gas needs from transit gas to the EU, caused disagreements on the Russia-Ukraine-EU line for many years. In addition to all this, the USA's pressure on EU countries to reduce their dependence on Russia made the problem even more complicated.
Although EU countries' energy imports from Russia have decreased to a minimum level and the Kremlin has managed to change the routes of pipelines in a short time, conflicts on the Russia-Ukraine border still continue to affect the energy market in the region and around the world. The first reason for this is that Russia's share in the international energy market is still high, and the other is that stability cannot be achieved in the Middle East, which has energy resources, especially Iran, and on which the EU has great hopes. As a result, although the EU's commitment to Russia, which the USA has wanted for many years, has decreased significantly with the start of the war and the EU has started to import compressed gas (LNG) from the USA, the energy problem continues to emerge with new dimensions. Ukraine's attacks on Russia's energy facilities have caused problems for Russia and Russia's countries regarding gasoline and fuel in recent months. All of this naturally brought about an increase in gasoline prices around the world. What has happened recently in the energy dimension of the Russia-Ukraine front is actually related to this.
Who benefits from the Trump-Putin agreement?
According to the agreement reached between Russia and the USA announced by Trump, Russia will supply over 300 thousand tons of diesel fuel to the USA and global markets in the first stage, then 500 thousand tons and then 1 million tons of diesel fuel in the following period. This agreement undoubtedly benefits both parties. Thus, while Trump is trying to reduce fuel prices in his country and around the world before the midterm elections in November, Moscow is also trying to loosen the sanctions that have been imposed on him for years. For the Kremlin, which is trying to show the importance of Russian energy resources and that they can reach an agreement with the USA on many issues, there is also undoubtedly a financial dimension to the issue. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that this agreement will positively affect the entire global economy. The energy issue constitutes one dimension of the political and economic negotiations between Russia and the USA.
Is an energy ceasefire really possible?
Undoubtedly, ending the attacks on oil production facilities in Russia and establishing an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine are of great importance in the implementation of the agreement reached between Russia and the USA. It seems more difficult to implement the second agreement announced by Trump. As a matter of fact, the Kremlin did not officially confirm that such an agreement was made, and Ukrainian officials stated that "they are not against it, but they should be informed of the conditions." Previously, the USA announced that a similar agreement had been reached between the parties, but there was no change in action.
The primary purpose of Trump making such a statement and putting pressure on the parties on this issue, as stated above, is to allow Russia to provide fuel supply to world markets more easily and uninterruptedly. Its second aim is to reduce the reactions of Ukraine and the EU, which are uncomfortable with the agreement reached between Russia and the USA, and to ensure that Ukraine has a more comfortable winter. On the other hand, the implementation of the ceasefire will undoubtedly show that Russia and Ukraine can agree on a limited but important issue. As a matter of fact, with this step, the USA not only aims to relieve the fuel market, but also wants to make progress in the diplomatic field. However, undoubtedly, for lasting peace, it is necessary to reach an agreement on issues such as lands, security guarantees, sanctions and investments. It will be clear in the coming days whether the energy ceasefire can be achieved or not, especially depending on Russia's decision.
On the other hand, regardless of this ceasefire, Trump demands that Ukraine stop attacking oil refineries in Russia. Judging by the statements made, Washington is trying to use old cards again against the Kiev administration in this process. Trump not only states that elections should be held in Ukraine after a long time, but also threatens to cut off arms aid to Ukraine and end the sharing of intelligence data.
One of the issues that has come to the agenda within the framework of recent developments is the holding of presidential elections in Ukraine. As it is known, the term of office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy ended in 2024. Following Trump's latest statements, Zelenskiy claimed that he was willing to hold presidential elections, but that Russia had to accept a 60-day ceasefire for this. Although the Kremlin has stated that they are open to negotiations, Russian experts think that Ukraine will use this period to survive the winter and restructure its army by receiving new aid. The ceasefire in the field of energy undoubtedly increases the possibility of an agreement on this issue, albeit slightly.
The impact of recent developments on Turkey
All these developments are undoubtedly followed closely by Türkiye. Ankara has played the role of mediator between the two sides from the beginning and is making great efforts to end the war as soon as possible. The implementation of the agreement between Russia and the USA will also positively affect the prices in Turkey. Turkish officials have raised the risk of war spreading in the Black Sea many times recently and have discussed this issue with both sides. The energy ceasefire is undoubtedly of great importance in stopping this spread process.
