Kırıkkale University International Relations Department Lecturer Assoc. Dr. Merve Suna Özel Özcan wrote about the impact of the military rapprochement between Russia and China on the global balance of power and the security strategies of the USA for AA Analysis.
The current military capacities of Russia and China reveal two different faces of the power struggle in the international system. While Russia directly affects the global security architecture with the strategic nuclear capacity, missile systems, energy resources it inherited from the Soviet Union and the military experience it gained in the Ukrainian War, China, on the other hand, transforms its expanding economic and technological capacity into a modern military power, changing the strategic balances, especially centered in the Indo-Pacific. For this reason, it would be incomplete to evaluate the two countries only based on their number of soldiers or weapon inventories. The real issue is the extent to which the economic sustainability of military power is integrated with technological autonomy, operational capability, nuclear deterrence, and the capacity to exert political influence in the international system.
At this point, the meeting held in Beijing on November 3 between Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov and Deputy Chairman of the Chinese Central Military Commission Zhang Shengmin reveals the search for a new threshold in the military dimension of the two countries' relations. The will to strengthen strategic consultations, joint training and scientific-technological cooperation should be evaluated beyond an isolated diplomatic contact. Because the rapprochement between Russia and China is not only a deepening of bilateral defense relations, but also a part of a broader quest to reshape the distribution of power and security architecture in the international system. In this respect, the issue is more comprehensive than the question of whether a military alliance has been established or not: To what extent will two states be able to transform the competition they maintain in separate geographies to each other's advantage?
Military capacity, economic power and strategic dependence should be considered together to explain the relationship between Russia and China. The ideological rapprochement between the Soviet Union and China during the Cold War turned into a deepening strategic competition since the 1960s, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, relations were reshaped on a new basis. The Treaty of Good Neighbourhood, Friendship and Cooperation signed in 2001, the economic and political relations that expanded after 2014, and the "unlimited partnership" discourse declared in 2022 have formed the historical and political basis for today's military rapprochement. The transformation in the military capacities of the two countries and the sustainability of these capacities should also be evaluated.
The change in Russia's defense management in May 2024 is important. Russian President Vladimir Putin's appointment of economist Andrey Belousov, instead of Sergey Shoygu, who served as Minister of Defense for many years, revealed that economic and industrial capacity have become decisive in Moscow's understanding of security. Rather than changing the military command at the front, Belousov aimed to increase the effectiveness of defense expenditures, strengthen the coordination between the defense industry and the economic institutions of the state, and strengthen the production capacity required by a long-term war. In addition, for Moscow, this rapprochement offers the opportunity to strengthen its strategic presence in the Pacific while expanding its economic and technological field of action, which narrowed after the Ukrainian war. For Beijing, the military coordination developed with Russia is important in terms of maintaining stability on the northern border and balancing the military weight of the United States in the Indo-Pacific. Therefore, the talks in Beijing should be read not only through the two countries' will to increase their joint exercises, but also through the strategic complementarity that develops between military production and technological capacity. Because while military cooperation deepens, economic asymmetry also becomes evident, which is one of the main issues that should be emphasized in the future relations between the two countries.
According to the data of the Stockholm-based International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia's share in global major arms exports decreased to 6.8 percent in the 2021-2025 period, while China's share was 5.6 percent. Compared to the previous 5-year period, Russia's export volume decreased by 64 percent, China's exports increased by 11 percent, and arms imports decreased by 72 percent. The decline in Russia's arms exports was influenced by the Ukrainian war's increase in domestic demand for the defense industry, sanctions and the contraction in traditional export markets.
As a matter of fact, in SIPRI Top 100 data, the total arms revenue of 8 Chinese defense companies in 2024 was 88.3 billion dollars, while the income of 2 Russian companies for which data was available remained at 31.2 billion dollars. While the revenues of Chinese companies decreased by 10 percent, the revenues of Russian companies increased by 23 percent. However, limited data on Russia makes direct comparison of total production capacity difficult. The most striking point is the countries to which arms exports are directed. In the same period, 48 percent of Russia's exports were to India and 61 percent of China's exports were to Pakistan. Therefore, the military rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing does not mean that all strategic interests in Asia coincide. Likewise, considering the US military presence in the Indo-Pacific and the security priorities of other regional actors, especially India, it is difficult to say that the military balance in Asia is determined solely by Moscow and Beijing. However, today's military and strategic balances in Asia cannot be evaluated without taking into account the capacity of Russia and China and the coordination between them.
In the Joint Sea-2026 exercise held in Qingdao, China in July 2026, reconnaissance, air and missile defense, submarine search and rescue and joint operations capabilities were important, as well as joint command capability. The 11th joint strategic air patrol conducted over the Sea of Japan, the East China Sea and the Western Pacific in June showed that the two countries have expanded their military coordination beyond their borders. However, what I really want to draw attention to is that military cooperation is gradually spreading to a wider geography with the participation of other states. Because, while the Border Defense Cooperation-2026 exercise carried out by China, Russia and Mongolia in September 2026 was important in terms of joint border security and the use of unmanned systems, the participation of Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in the Will for Peace-2026 naval exercise held off the coast of South Africa in January 2026 showed that these military contacts extend beyond Asia. Security and counter-terrorism activities involving countries such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India, Pakistan and Iran within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are areas where multilateral security relations between Moscow and Beijing develop.
With their deepening military cooperation, Russia and China are affecting the global balance of power by carrying their increasing weight in Asia's security architecture beyond the continent. The real importance of the Moscow-Beijing rapprochement today should be sought not only in increasing the military power of the two countries, but also in creating a capacity that can simultaneously affect the security calculations of the USA in different geographies with their strategic relations extending from Asia to Africa.
In the coming period, it can be expected that the deepening military coordination between Russia and China will not only reshape the security architecture of Asia but also accelerate the transformation of the global power distribution by narrowing the US's strategic field of action in different geographies.
