Standard and Poor's confirms Italy's ratings of "BBB+/A-2", with a positive outlook, appreciating the commitment to the accounts and debt stabilization. It also assesses that Italy's economic growth will exceed previous estimates, driven by a favorable external context for net exports (excluding energy) and the continuation of the stimuli linked to the Ngeu programme, while for the period 2027-2029, growth should remain at modest but stable levels.
It is further confirmation that we are on the right path, comments the Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, In such difficult times, a confirmation represents a success. S&P's rating comes at the end of a day which saw the release of data on GDP trends in Europe in the third quarter, which sees the EU growing by 0.5%, the Eurozone by 0.4% and Italy at a standstill. The shadow of high energy prices will then lengthen over the coming months: in September the prices of Italian imports jumped by 9.6% on an annual basis. For now, Italy is not moving up to Serie A, but the decision to raise was not easy in the current context.
In January the agency had set two conditions for a new increase: that the country strengthen its financial solidity abroad (We expect Italy's net foreign debt to fall below 150% of current account revenues by 2028, it writes today) and that it reduce the deficit in order to bring down the debt-to-GDP ratio. The markets don't seem to see much news either: the spread between 10-year BTPs and German Bunds closed at 104 points, unchanged compared to the day before, while the yield on Italian 10-year bonds remained at 4.41%, reflecting a still high cost of Italian debt. On the price front, Istat recorded an increase in import prices of 1.9% in a month in September, driven mainly by energy. The Italian energy deficit rose to 5.9 billion, from 3.8 billion a year earlier, even if the overall trade balance remained in surplus at 2.1 billion.
Exports increased by 3.8% in value but fell by 3.4% in volume. The problem is European: in September the EU trade balance went from a surplus of 11.4 billion a year earlier to a deficit of 16.8 billion. The energy deficit increased from 24.1 to 37.6 billion. In the first nine months of the year, the Union's foreign trade accumulated a deficit of 83.2 billion, against a surplus of 85.5 billion in 2025. Meanwhile, anticipation is growing for the new economic forecasts that the European Commission will present on Tuesday 17 November. Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis already anticipated on Thursday that both growth and inflation estimates will most likely be revised upwards.
In May, Brussels forecast a GDP increase of 1.1% in the EU and 0.9% in the Eurozone this year. He now warns that energy-driven increases could last longer and spread to the rest of the economy. Eurostat data on GDP meanwhile show a multi-speed Europe: in the third quarter, for example, Germany grew by 0.2%, Spain by 0.6%, while France recorded -0.1%. For Italy the response is a flat zero percent, after the +0.2% of the previous three months. On an annual basis, Italian growth is 0.8%, compared to 1.3% in the Eurozone and 1.5% in the EU.
