The result will be a test for the government of Prime Minister Friedrich Merz, who has tried to curb the rise of the AfD by adopting a tougher line on immigration and security issues, but whose public support remains very low.
According to Reuters, the latest polls show the AfD's vote share at just over 40 percent, while Merz's party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), remains at 23 percent.
Winning an absolute majority would allow the traditional centrist parties to overcome the long-held "firewall" policy of keeping them out of power by refusing to cooperate with the AfD.
Reaching an absolute majority is considered an insurmountable threshold within Germany's proportional representation system, which was designed to encourage coalition governments and make it difficult for a single party to come to power on its own.
If the AfD fails to gain an absolute majority, a CDU government led by current Prime Minister Sven Schulze stands out as the most likely option; However, the structure of the coalition to be formed will be shaped according to which parties will enter the parliament.
After today's vote, coalition talks that will last for weeks are expected to begin.
For the AfD, the Saxony-Anhalt election is a stepping stone towards its goal of reaching federal power in the general elections planned to be held in 2029.
Speaking at the closing rally held yesterday evening, Siegmund said, "Whatever the outcome of tomorrow's election, we have already made history."
Addressing the crowd in Magdeburg, the state capital, Siegmund said, "Because this movement that we started here in Saxony-Anhalt and has now spread throughout Germany can no longer be stopped."
On the other hand, AfD, which is classified as "registered far-right" by the state domestic intelligence agency, will have difficulty forming a government due to the firewall imposed by other parties if it cannot gain an absolute majority.
Such a scenario would bring about complex coalition negotiations depending on whether the parties can pass the 5 percent threshold.
Polls show that FDP, one of CDU's current coalition partners, is below the threshold, while SPD is below 10 percent.
The far-left BSW, which is the only party that does not rule out a coalition with the AfD, also seems likely to fall below the threshold.
For Schulze, who stands out as the voters' first choice for the state leadership, a partnership with the SPD and the Greens may not be enough to provide a parliamentary majority.
The CDU, on the other hand, categorically rejects a partnership with the far-left Left Party, which could help it reach the majority.
One of the alternatives on the agenda is considered to be a minority government formula that will be established under the leadership of Schulze and will be based on the passive support of the Left Party from outside, a model also applied in the neighboring state of Thuringia.
The first official results are expected to come shortly after the polls close, around 18.00 local time (19.00 CET) this evening.
