When researchers Ola Hall and Alexandros Sopasakis at SESAC, the Swedish Competence Center for Satellite-Enabled Social Science Analytics at the University of Lund analyzed satellite images from July 2018 and summer 2026 respectively, they were somewhat surprised.
- This summer has been marked by reports of drought and water shortages. When we analyzed satellite images of agricultural land in Skåne and Mälardalen, we therefore expected to also see clear traces of the drought in the vegetation. We didn't, says Ola Hall, Head of Department and Lecturer at the Department of Cultural Geography and Economic Geography.
Instead, the analyzes became a reminder of how extreme the situation was in 2018.
- However, this does not mean that the water shortage this year is not real. On the contrary, our analysis shows that precipitation during the period October–July was less in 2026 than during the corresponding period in 2018 and 2025 in the investigated regions, he continues.
At the same time, measurements of groundwater, lakes and streams show that water resources are under severe pressure. The problem therefore seems to lie largely in the long-term water balance and in the lack of replenishment during autumn, winter and spring, rather than in a severe drying of the crops during July, the researchers state.
They have used images from the European Sentinel-2 satellite and compared July 2026 both with the normal July conditions in the period 2019-2025 and with 2018.
- The summer of 2018 has become something of a Swedish reference year for extreme drought. The grain harvest then fell to just over 3.2 million tonnes, the lowest level since 1959. The effects on agriculture and vegetation were so great that they also appear very clearly in the satellite images.
The images from 2026 surprise the researchers – not least in light of the summer's extensive reporting on heat, drought and forest fires in Europe.
- If we compare with the normal July conditions of recent years, the agricultural land in Mälardalen is statistically indistinguishable from the normal level. In Skåne, the vegetation is at or slightly above normal. Nor does the satellite-based measure of the vegetation's water content show any clear negative deviation. We therefore find no regional vegetation drought in the satellite images from July, says Ola Hall.
A simple satellite map comparing July 2026 to July 2018 shows a dramatically greener landscape in 2026.
- Above all, it says something about how extreme 2018 was. To determine whether 2026 really deviates from the norm, we must instead compare with several years.
This year's harvest forecast also fits into the picture, according to the researchers.
This year's grain harvest is expected to be just under 5.9 million tonnes. That is 9 percent less than the record year 2025, but at the same time 10 percent more than the average for the last five years.
- It is far from the situation in 2018. Nevertheless, the water situation is serious. A landscape can thus look relatively green and normal from space at the same time that the water resources under and around the vegetation are under strong pressure.
