How will the elections reflect on Israel's regional policy?

Faculty Member of Al-Faisal University, Saudi Arabia. Khaled Mohammed Batarfi wrote about the expectations of regional countries from the Israeli elections for AA Analysis.

Israel's neighbors are wondering whether the next government in the upcoming elections will change policies that make the region more unsafe. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's departure from office can be considered an opportunity in this sense, but this will not mean a peace initiative on its own. Regional capitals must distinguish between welcoming the arrival of a less confrontational interlocutor and believing that a change in leadership will resolve conflicts arising from deep-seated problems such as occupation, disputed sovereignty and lack of recognition of the rights of Palestinians.

Election arithmetic requires caution. A recent poll cited by Anadolu Agency shows that both the Netanyahu bloc and the opposition fall short of the majority needed to come to power alone. Therefore, coalition negotiations will be at least as important as who the leading candidate is. A prime minister's scope for compromise is shaped in part by which partners can bring down his government. Winning an election victory against Netanyahu will not automatically mean an authorization for the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Common priorities, different approaches in the region

The approaches of the countries in the region to the issue vary. For Cairo and Amman, preventing the displacement of Palestinians and increasing instability along their borders is a priority. Beirut and Damascus need sovereignty and space for reconstruction. Riyadh is seeking a permanent solution that reconciles regional integration and Palestinian rights. Ankara, on the other hand, evaluates the developments from the perspective of both the Palestinian issue and Syria's security. Although the countries' priorities overlap, the ways they are affected by the decisions Israel makes differ.

A new government could make important decisions about facilitating access to humanitarian aid for Gaza, abiding by ceasefire commitments, allowing reconstruction, and negotiating withdrawal arrangements. Such changes save lives and should not be considered mere window dressing, but without a political solution reconstruction will mean financing a temporary recovery between repeated periods of destruction. A joint statement by 8 regional and Muslim countries in September tied the future of Gaza to a sovereign Palestinian state while demanding implementation of existing commitments. This requirement will be a fundamental test for any government that comes into office.

The West Bank offers a much clearer yardstick by which to evaluate the next government. Will the government stop settlement expansion, combat settler violence, and reverse practices that are fragmenting Palestinian land? Or will he preserve these policies and simply express them in more diplomatic language? A calmer approach that would lead to the same result would be far from reassuring. Netanyahu's opponents should be judged not by their stance against him, but by what they are ready to change.

In the context of Lebanon and Syria, leadership can influence the frequency of military actions, willingness to negotiate, and respect for agreements. A government that does not rely on constant conflict may offer practical opportunities to reduce tensions, but neighboring countries cannot determine their security according to the temperament of an Israeli leader, and there is a need for concrete regulations, respect for sovereignty, and an end to the assumption that Israel can indefinitely determine the security conditions of its neighbors through the unilateral use of force. Israeli civilians also deserve security, and it is necessary to ensure the security of all civilians in the region with permanent agreements.

Saudi Arabia and Türkiye's red lines

For Saudi Arabia, normalization is still a conceivable possibility as part of a credible peace solution. Riyadh has clearly made the establishment of diplomatic relations conditional on the existence of a Palestinian state. Changing the Israeli prime minister will not eliminate this condition, nor will it erase the political and moral consequences of the suffering experienced by the Palestinians. Any future government will need to prove that its proposal is not just about a better communications strategy or a new open-ended negotiation process.

A coalition led by Netanyahu that is dependent on groups that oppose Palestinian sovereignty will not be able to achieve this goal. A successor coalition may have more flexibility, but the composition and program of the coalition will continue to determine the decisions made. Saudi Arabia should keep the diplomatic door open while demanding measurable commitments. Regional recognition is valuable as it can help ensure a fair solution, but offering it without concrete progress will diminish this impact.

Ankara's interpretation will likely be similarly conditional. The intensity of clashes with Netanyahu gives his departure potential diplomatic significance, but Türkiye's concerns extend beyond the personal dispute. In October, Ankara condemned Israel's actions in Syria and reiterated its support for Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity. A new Israeli government may reduce tensions, but rapprochement between the two depends on Israel changing its stance in both Syria and the Palestinian territories. A different tone may not completely repair relationships, but it can open up dialogue.

If the countries in the region believe that the elections do not offer a significant change in practical terms, their reaction should be to engage in coordinated diplomacy, not to freeze relations. By agreeing on criteria, further integration should be tied to Israeli compliance, Palestinian institutions should be strengthened, and Washington and European partners should be pressured to support workable commitments. Existing diplomatic channels can serve these purposes.

The choice is important because different choices of governments can contribute to preventing suffering, but the region cannot put its own interests on hold until Israeli politics reveals an ideal partner. Countries in the region must test the coalition that came to power, reward real progress, and oppose attempts to create a "more acceptable public image" to disguise unchanging policies. The main determining question in this process will be how the new government will use the power it has.