Separatist party projected to win Quebec election, adding new test to Canada's unity

Canada's Parti Québécois (PQ) is projected to have won enough seats in Quebec's provincial election to form a minority government, though the separatists will need other parties' support to achieve their aims - such as a new public vote on independence.

It marks the first time the PQ has been in power since 2014, with Paul St-Pierre Plamondon set to become the province's new leader.

In his victory speech, St-Pierre Plamondon again raised his independence plans but vowed to be "the premier of everyone in Quebec".

The result could prove a fresh test for Prime Minister Mark Carney, also setting up confrontations with Québec over issues like immigration and the monarchy.

In its effort to achieve independence, the PQ has pledged to hold a referendum on separating from the rest of Canada.

The majority French-speaking province has held other votes on this, in 1980 and 1995. On both occasions, the independence movement was defeated. Polls indicate only 30% of Quebecers back such a move this time.

St-Pierre Plamondon has previously said the vote would occur after President Donald Trump is out of office south of the border in the United States, explaining that would require "conditions that allow for an informed and serene debate". The US and Canada are in a trade war as a result of Trump's programme of tariffs.

In his victory speech after Monday's election results, St-Pierre Plamondon said of the potential referendum: "Our national destiny will be achieved one day."

But it is not clear how the PQ leader would secure the vote that he wants - given that rival parties, upon whose support he would depend, oppose independence.

With most votes counted on Tuesday morning, the party was set to win fewer than the 64 seats needed to command a majority in the province's assembly, according to projections from Canadian media.

The Liberals - the party of Carney's government - are projected to have increased their number of seats in the assembly, as have the Conservatives.

All parties benefited from the collapse of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), which was previously the province's governing party but is not projected to have won a single seat this time.

Carney congratulated Plamondon, saying he looked forward to working with the new provincial leader, adding: "Building a stronger Quebec is at the heart of our mission to build a stronger Canada."

Carney may find himself managing dual unity crises in different parts of the country, depending on the outcome of a vote in Alberta on whether to have a referendum of its own.

Trump is due to leave office in just over two years, meaning that if Plamondon is able to enact his pledge, a third vote on independence would likely be scheduled for 2029 or 2030.

Separate from the issue of independence, Plamondon has made it clear he is willing to fight Ottawa if it is seen as overstepping matters of provincial interest.

He suggested during the campaign that he was going to pressure Ottawa, external on issues like immigration, vowing to fight any increases mandated by the Carney government.

He also pledged to "abolish the monarchy in Quebec" and reroute money spent on its institutions to social services instead.

"We are going to do what we have to do to get the monarchy out of Quebec, repatriate those funds, and send them to social causes," he told reporters in late September.

For example, Plamondon suggested defunding Quebec's lieutenant-governor's office - responsible for representing King Charles III in the province - saying he would instead spend that money to tackle homelessness.

Plamondon was among the Quebec lawmakers who refused to pledge allegiance to the King in 2022, paving the way for a provincial law that now makes the oath of allegiance optional.

His plan to withdraw financial support for the lieutenant-governor's office is likely to face significant legal challenges, given the monarchy's central role in Canada's constitution.

Such a move would also put future Quebec laws in doubt, as one of the key roles of the lieutenant-governor is to give royal assent to new legislation.

Pressed about these hurdles, Plamondon told reporters that he was ready for a legal battle with the federal government.