In the three years after Hamas' attack against Israel on October 7, 2023, completed this Wednesday (7), the Middle East recorded a succession of events that changed the correlation of forces in unstable Western Asia through wars and the creation and dismantling of military and political alliances.
The Hamas attack on villages in southern Israel, which took the lives of around 1,200 people, was followed by an Israeli military response classified by experts as a genocide, which destroyed entire cities in Gaza, such as Rafah and Khan Yunis, and caused the death of more than 74,000 people.
In this three-year period, there was the fall of Bashad al-Assad's government in Syria, Israel's war in Lebanon with Hezbollah, the war between Israel and the United States (USA) against Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and, more recently, the return of the conflict between the Yemeni Houthis and Saudi Arabia.
Bruno Huberman, professor of international relations at the Pontifical Catholic University of São Paulo (PUC-SP), assessed, in an interview with Agência Brasil, that October 7th was a “turning point” in the history of the region and reorganized political and military alliances in the Middle East.
“The pro-USA bloc no longer exists because there was a break between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates [UAE] with the war against Iran, where Saudi Arabia tried to maintain a less open aggressiveness, while the UAE joined Israel to participate in the aggression against Iran, alongside the USA,” he stated.
One of the results of the breakup of this alliance was the departure of the Emirates from the Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries (OPEC), a cartel of oil nations whose main leadership is Saudi Arabia.
With the prolongation of the war against Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan formed, on August 7, 2026, the so-called Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, which provides that an aggression against one of these countries would be an action against all of the group.
Bruno Huberman assesses that the creation of this Islamic military bloc is an outcome of October 7th. Despite being formed by US allies, such as Türkiye and Saudi Arabia, the alliance does not present Iran as the region's greatest threat.
"It is important to note that this new bloc is not anti-Iran. It does not seek to subjugate the Islamic Republic of Iran and does not have the Axis of Resistance [a group of actors opposed to US policy in the region] as the main threat to the stability of the Middle East. This is an important change", he added.
Isabela Agostinelli, professor of international relations at Fundação Escola de Comércio Álvares Penteado (Fecap), told Agência Brasil that the wars after October 7th are linked to the Hamas attack, which served to place the Palestinian issue at the center of the regional dispute.
“After October 7, the Palestinian issue was placed back at the center again to the point where Saudi Arabia, which was on the verge of normalizing relations with Israel, said that there is no agreement possible without a solution to the Palestinian issue,” he highlighted.
For Isabela Agostinelli, Israel used October 7 to expand the war from Gaza to the West Bank, Lebanon and Iran with the aim of transforming the regional order in its favor.
“There is an objective there to base this order on disorder, on regional chaos, on endless wars, which are very profitable for the weapons and technology industry, which in Israel is very strong,” he told Agência Brasil.
In the researcher's assessment, behind this agenda is the Greater Israel project, a proposal that has existed since the beginning of the Zionist movement, which gave rise to the State of Israel, and envisages the expansion of the country from the Nile River to the Euphrates River, taking over parts of Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.
Another development of October 7 would have been the fissure in the unity that existed between the Gulf countries, gathered in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), formed by Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia.
“Oman has moved closer to Iran, and the other Gulf countries are in a bit of disarray, not knowing whether to side with the Emirates or with Saudi Arabia”, pondered Bruno Huberman.
For the specialist from the Middle East Conflict Observatory, October 7, 2023 was the event that began this reorganization of power blocs in the Middle East through a succession of conflicts.
"Nowadays there are three blocks, no longer two. There are the ultra-allies of the Americans, which are Israel and the Emirates, mainly. And you will have this intermediate block, which are Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey, which pursue a policy of non-alignment between the USA, China and Russia", he commented.
Coordinator of the International Conflict Study Group (Geci) at PUC-SP, Bruno Huberman added that October 7th led to the weakening of the Axis of Resistance, which is the group of actors who oppose the policies of Israel and the USA in the region.
Presented as the third regional power bloc in the region today, the Resistance Axis would have lost strength, among other reasons, due to the fall of Assad in Syria and the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
“There is only Iran as a state force and the other non-state forces are very weakened, particularly Hamas,” he said.
Middle East experts have maintained that the Hamas attack on October 7 was a response by the Axis of Resistance to the so-called Abraham Accords.
Created by Israel and the USA to normalize relations between Arab countries and Tel Aviv, these agreements seek to remove the Arab demand for changes in the situation of the Palestinians.
Professor Huberman highlights that an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia could consolidate the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), announced on September 9, 2023, a month before the Hamas attack.
"This logistical corridor would connect India, the Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Greece. In other words, for Europe to stop depending on Russian energy and Chinese goods, moving closer to Arab energy and Indian goods. October 7th is part of this", he pondered.
On the other hand, Huberman adds that the advance of Israeli colonization of the West Bank and East Jerusalem, Palestinian territories according to international law, also contributed to Hamas' decision to attack Israel.
“It was a response to 70 years of occupation, 100 years of colonization and the current Netanyahu government, which had already been on an aggressive escalation since its inauguration”, he considered.
