
SSI expert Serkan Kumdakçı evaluated the gradual increase formulas based on the number of premium days and age criteria in the 2027 pension regulations.
AI-generated summary
For the 2027 increase in pensions, in addition to the inflation difference, formulas for linear increase and welfare share are being worked on.
While the calculations regarding the increase in pensions for 2027 continue, in addition to the inflation difference, linear increase and welfare share options remain on the agenda.
SSI expert Serkan Kumdakçı said that instead of applying the same amount to all retirees, staggering the incremental increase between 5 thousand TL and 15 thousand TL according to the number of premium days could be considered.
Speaking on the television program he attended, Kumdakçı stated that the options for a progressive raise and welfare share have been discussed in the Economy Coordination Board for a while.
Kumdakçı pointed out the statement of the Minister of Treasury and Finance, Mehmet Şimşek, that the regulation will cover all retirees, but the amount may differ depending on age and premium date.
'GRADUAL INCREASE MAY BE ON THE AGENDA'
Kumdakçı stated that a gradual system could be applied instead of an equal amount in the rolling raise and made the following statements:
Seyyanen, the raise will not appear as an equal increase for everyone. It may be on the agenda to make it between 10 and 15 thousand TL, or even to increase it gradually, starting from 5 thousand TL.
According to the example given by Kumdakçı, a retired person with 3,600 premium days can be given a 5 thousand TL raise, a retiree with 5 thousand premium days can be given a 10 thousand TL raise, and a retiree with 7 thousand 200 premium days can be given a rectilinear raise of approximately 15 thousand TL.
Kumdakçı explained the logic of the possible formula with the words: "More shares of the raise will be given to those who work harder, pay more premiums and transfer more premiums to the treasury."
THE INCREASE THAT PENSIONERS ARE ALREADY GUARANTEED IS 8.28 PERCENT
According to inflation data for the July-October period, retirees are already entitled to an increase of 8.28 percent.
It is estimated that the January raise for SSK and BAĞ-KUR retirees may reach approximately 10 percent with the addition of November and December inflation data.
According to this scenario, the lowest pension, which is currently 23 thousand 552 TL, is calculated to increase to approximately 25 thousand 907 TL only with the increase in inflation.
10 THOUSAND TL SEYYANEN ZAMLA 35 THOUSAND TL SCENARIO
According to Kumdakçı's calculations, if a 10 thousand TL increase is made following the increase in inflation, the minimum pension may reach approximately 35 thousand TL.
If the wage increase is staggered according to the premium day, the additional amount retirees will receive will differ.
These calculations are not based on a finalized regulation, but on the scenarios that are being considered.
OPTION BETWEEN 5 PERCENT AND 20 PERCENT IN WELFARE SHARE
The other option on the table is to add a proportional welfare share to pensions.
Kumdakçı stated that the welfare share could vary between 5 percent and 20 percent. He stated that if this formula is applied, the minimum pension can exceed 30 thousand TL.
Stating that the age criterion can also be used in calculating the welfare share, Kumdakçı gave an example that a person who retires at the age of 50-55 can receive a welfare share between 2 percent and 5 percent, and a retiree over the age of 65 can receive a welfare share of up to 11 percent.
IF TWO FORMULA APPLIED TOGETHER, 37-38 THOUSAND TL CALCULATION
Kumdakçı suggested that if the progressive increase and the welfare share are applied together, the minimum pension could approach the 37-38 thousand TL band.
However, no official decision has been announced yet on whether the rolling increase and welfare share will be applied together, what the rates will be and what criteria will be taken as basis.
AGE CRITERIA FOR WIDOW AND ORPHAN PENSIONS ARE UNCERTAIN
If an age-differentiated welfare share is implemented, it remains unclear what age will be taken as the basis for widow and orphan pensions.
Kumdakçı said that it is not yet clear whether the age of the deceased insured or the age of the beneficiary receiving the pension will be taken into account in the calculation.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The January retirement increase is expected to reach approximately 10% based on inflation data.
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