An analysis regarding the effects of the funds included in the liquidation on the real sector with the decision of the CMB dated September 17, 2026, was published on the Center's Agenda blog within the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
"Fund Liquidations and the Real Sector: What Do Firm Data Say?" prepared by Ünal Seven, who serves as the General Manager of the CBRT, and Kadir Gürci, the Manager. In the study titled, the financial size of the companies invested in the said funds, their weight in the economy, supplier connections and credit usage after the liquidation decision were examined.
According to the analysis, as of September 15, 2026, approximately 3 thousand real sector companies have a total investment of 116.2 billion TL in the funds within the scope of the elimination. While 57 billion TL of this amount is held in money market funds, the remaining part is held in stock funds and other fund types.
When companies below the investment balance threshold of 1 million TL or more used in the analysis are taken into account, the number of companies investing in the funds within the scope of the elimination reaches 4,500 and the total investment amount reaches 116.2 billion TL.
COMPANIES' SHARE IN THE ECONOMY IS LIMITED
In the study, it was calculated that the companies investing in the funds within the scope of the draft accounted for 1.2 percent of the real sector's total assets, 0.6 percent of its employment, 0.9 percent of its turnover, 1.1 percent of its exports and 0.9 percent of its commercial loan balance.
CBRT researchers also conducted an exposure analysis to evaluate the importance of companies' fund investments in terms of short-term financial risks.
In this context, the investment amounts of the companies in the funds within the scope of liquidation were proportioned to their current assets in the last year's balance sheets. Companies with an exposure rate of 10 percent or less were classified as low, those with an exposure rate between 10 percent and 50 percent were classified as medium, and those with an exposure rate above 50 percent were classified as high exposure.
Accordingly, it was seen that the weight of companies in the high exposure group in the economy was quite low. While these companies constituted only 3 per ten thousand of the total employment and turnover, their share in total commercial loans remained at 2 per ten thousand.
1.2 PERCENT OF EMPLOYMENT AT SUPPLIERS MAY BE AFFECTED
In the analysis, the possible effects of fund liquidations were also evaluated through the commercial connections of the companies.
CBRT researchers examined the suppliers that sell to companies that have investments in the funds and identified the companies whose share in total sales is over 5 percent.
Accordingly, these suppliers constitute 1.2 percent of the total employment in the economy and 1.5 percent of the total turnover. It was stated that if companies in the low exposure group were excluded from the analysis, these rates decreased significantly.
ACCESS TO CREDIT CONTINUES
The study also discussed the possible effects of the liquidation process on companies' short-term obligations and working capital needs.
It was stated that weekly data showed that the share of short-term TL loans used by companies with investments in the funds within the scope of the liquidation in total short-term TL loan usage increased.
It was noted that this situation indicates that these companies continue to have access to credit. CBRT researchers evaluated that the regulations implemented by the Bank on October 1, 2026 to support macrofinancial stability and banks' liquidity management were also effective in this outlook.
The analysis also included that the average credit costs of the companies were slightly higher than other companies, but the difference was not statistically significant.
PROGRESS IN THE LIQUIDATION PROCESS IS IMPORTANT
In the conclusion of the analysis, it was emphasized that the limited weight of companies with high fund exposure in the economy does not eliminate the importance of the liquidity problems faced by companies in the liquidation process.
It was also stated that the total impact of the developments in the fund market on the real sector cannot be evaluated only through the direct investments of these companies. It was noted that declines in asset prices, tightening in financial conditions and loss of confidence may also affect consumption, investment and production decisions.
It was stated that the CBRT's steps supporting banks' liquidity management and regulations supporting SMEs and private sector bond issuers' access to finance could help limit possible risks. It was noted that the progress to be made in the drafting process could also contribute to mitigating the effects on the real sector.
