A degree as a guarantee for a secure job? This calculation no longer works in Germany. According to the Federal Employment Agency, around 335,000 people with a university degree were unemployed in this country in 2025 - a sad record. The unemployment rate among academics was 3.3 percent last year.
That sounds low compared to the general unemployment rate, as it was 6.3 percent for the whole of 2025. But before the corona pandemic, the unemployment rate among academics was only 2.1 percent. The increase to 3.3 percent is a jump of 57 percent. The last time the unemployment rate for academics was above three percent was in 2007.
These figures show that the current crisis is now also affecting those who were previously spared from economic downturns, explains labor market researcher Enzo Weber to the ARD financial format 50k: "In recent years we have seen that even academics are no longer immune to the crisis."
Significantly more students
There are various reasons for this: on the one hand, developments such as artificial intelligence ensure that even in “typical desk jobs,” human performance is increasingly taking a back seat and AI can “take on more and more tasks,” says Weber.
But there is also another reason: there are simply many more students than before. The number of students in this country has been increasing significantly for decades. In 2014 there were already 2.7 million students and 1.43 million trainees, ten years later there were already 2.9 million students and only 1.21 million trainees.
Studying was attractive for a long time, also because politicians after the Second World War focused heavily on more education. The aim was to strengthen the economy with additional high schools and universities - through better education. Because more and more engineers, scientists, economists and other specialists were needed.
Many positions remain empty
However, the shortage of skilled workers now mainly exists in training occupations: so-called bottleneck occupations - which, according to the Federal Employment Agency, are jobs in which positions remain vacant for a particularly long time - are more classic training occupations such as electronics technicians, professional drivers or nursing staff. The Federal Employment Agency now counts 163 professions in which it is difficult to fill vacancies.
And the problem is likely to worsen in the coming years as an entire generation of baby boomers retires. According to the Federal Statistical Office, around 25 percent of employees across all professions are 55 years of age or older. This proportion is 44 percent for bus and tram drivers, and the situation is similar in some skilled trades and nursing professions. So actually this would be a good opportunity for young people.
But many training positions remain unfilled: According to the Federal Institute for Vocational Training, around 54,400 training positions remained without suitable applicants in the 2025 training year. Anyone doing training today has more choice in many regions than ever before.
Salaries vary
And it's not just the large selection that sounds like a pro-argument for training: Anyone who is currently doing training in a profession with a shortage also has a good chance of negotiating salaries - after all, skilled workers are urgently needed.
Nevertheless, graduates still perform better in a direct comparison of monthly salaries. According to figures from the Federal Statistical Office, the average gross monthly salary for a master's graduate is 7,019 euros. A master craftsman therefore only earns an average gross monthly income of 5,405 euros.
Earnings advantage for trainees
People who complete an apprenticeship still have a decisive financial advantage: they generally work much earlier than people who study. Anyone who completes a three-year training course to become a mechatronics engineer already receives a salary, while students in the field of mechanical engineering first need three years to complete a bachelor's degree and then go on to complete a master's degree. Students are therefore significantly older when they start working in their chosen profession.
Trainees, on the other hand, earn money years in advance, pay into the pension fund, and can save and invest. In some cases, this can result in a six-figure income advantage before those with an academic degree can even catch up economically.
It is often more difficult for graduates to achieve high incomes, particularly in humanities subjects. That's why expert Weber also emphasizes: "It really depends on the individual case." It's different for doctors or lawyers, for example. The old rule still applies: “Over their lifetime, academics still earn significantly more on average than skilled workers,” says Weber.
Combining practice and theory
But there is also a third option that young people can choose: dual study. It combines practical phases in the company with theoretical phases at the university. Students often earn a vocational degree and a bachelor's degree at the same time. This is quite demanding, and there are hardly any holidays.
Because dual students are employed by a company, they receive a salary that, according to career and study guides, can be between around 1,000 and 1,600 euros per month. The company often also covers the tuition fees and offers a permanent job immediately after graduation - without long application phases.
That's why it's so popular: "The dual study program has increased significantly in the six-figure range," says Enzo Weber about the number of dual students. The reason is clear: you can “combine direct practice with overarching, more abstract skills that you learn during your studies.”
Does AI threaten jobs?
And it is precisely this mix that is becoming more important in times of AI - the ability to learn, the ability to communicate and the ability to develop further. Because the uncertainty caused by AI is great, especially among academics. AI takes on tasks that were long considered typical tasks for knowledge professions: analyzing data, creating texts, making translations. For many skilled workers, on the other hand, AI is more of a tool that makes everyday life easier, but less directly replaces the job.
The labor market researcher emphasizes that it is also important in knowledge-based professions to see AI as more than just a threat: “It is a change and not a slump.” AI is displacing certain activities, but at the same time new business models, new tasks and new demand are emerging. It is crucial to ask: “How is AI actually used in jobs?” It is important not only to “look at what AI leaves behind, but also at what new activities are possible for humans in the future.”
What will determine everyday working life in the future
This also means that just because more academics are currently unemployed does not mean that studying is suddenly no longer worthwhile. Weber criticizes the fact that there were two major errors in thinking in the past: "For many years we made the mistake of always recommending higher qualifications, i.e. always in the direction of studying. After that, for many years we made the mistake of complaining about alleged over-academicization - and both are the wrong approach."
The key is to find out which career you would like to develop in in the long term. Experts like Weber assume that in the future you will have to combine three things in order to do well in your job: solid specialist knowledge, practical experience and the ability to use AI and digital tools productively.
In the end, whether this mix comes about through training, studying or a dual model is less important than the willingness to learn - and not be put off by old ideas. Perhaps the question “Study or training?” so less important anyway.
