Sweden faces knife-edge election as far-right Sweden Democrats eye power

It was a point of national pride that at the height of the 2015 refugee crisis across Europe Sweden took in 163,000 asylum seekers, the second highest per capita across the continent – equivalent to one person for every 60 locals.

But a decade on, that number had fallen by 96 per cent. Successive governments from both the political Left and then the Right have pushed for firmer measures on migration that have steadily gained acceptance across society.

Voters will head to the polls on Sunday for a tight election that stands to decide whether the country will shun the direction of the last government or deepen this political shift.

The ruling centre-right minority coalition relies on outside support from the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, a party that has steadily come into the mainstream and is now polling at 19 per cent. A win would offer them ministerial positions for the first time, inviting deep-seated concern from onlookers.

“The election is a referendum on the Sweden Democrats; whether we continue to go down a far-right path,” according to author and political commentator Jan Guillou.

Ahead of Sunday’s general elections, The Independent looks at a far-right victory could mean for a country grappling again with its identity.

Who are the Sweden Democrats?

The Sweden Democrats were founded in 1988 as a radical nationalist party. According to an internal investigation, some founders were neo-Nazis, although the party under Jimmie Åkesson, who has led them since 2005, has disavowed those roots, expelling openly racist members and saying it maintains a strict “no racism” policy.

Cleaning up the party’s image has helped a marginal movement grow into a substantial force with influence over talking points across the political spectrum. The movement still leans on hardline populist messaging around migration, criminal justice and national identity. Åkesson has found an audience in appeals to making Sweden “great again”.

“He's not up on a ‌high horse ⁠and he has a knack for explaining complicated issues in an easy, understandable way,” explains Jenny Madestam, a political scientist at Sweden’s Södertörn University. “He is the guy next door.”

This appeal has won the Sweden Democrats enough influence to become essential in the centre-right’s battle to hold on to power. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson says the country needs a stable majority government to tackle important issues, such as national security and gang crime, and that the only way is to include the Sweden Democrats. Some Conservatives last time around framed an alliance with the far-right as a way to contain its influence.

One area where all the main parties seem to agree is Russia. Nicholas Aylott, associate professor of political science at Södertörn University, told the Associated Press: “The biggest threat to Sweden's security is from the war in Ukraine and there is almost complete consensus in Sweden about support for Ukraine and deep antipathy towards Russia.”

What would the Sweden Democrats do with power?

The party’s 2026 programme gives an indication of what ministers might try to achieve if the Sweden Democrats become part of a four-way ruling partnership: reducing migration to the lowest possible level, deporting foreign national accused of serious crimes, imposing harsher criminal penalties, and keeping fuel and energy costs down.

Asylum numbers have dropped to a 40-year low and while Kristersson says the focus will now be on integration, the Sweden Democrats want to go further. In July, while campaigning for the upcoming election, the party paid for adverts promoting a new initiative offering migrants around 350,000 Swedish crowns (£26,700/$37,000) to leave the country.

“Do you miss Mogadishu? The remigration grant will help you get home,” reads one of the adverts.

So far this year, 171 people have taken up the offer of cash to leave. The Sweden Democrats want to extend the offer to immigrants with Swedish citizenship, if they agree to revoke it and leave.

Critics fear the party’s promises to end multiculturalism, restore traditional Swedish values and ban some forms of Muslim dress could deepen social divisions and shift the political centre of gravity even further right.

“If the Sweden Democrats enter government, that would have an enormously negative impact on the liberal ideals of our country,” says Birgitta Ohlsson, European Affairs minister from 2010 to 2014, and now a Center Party lawmaker. “We've already seen the effects while they've been outside government, and it would be ten times worse.”

Despite a consensus over tight immigration policies, many Swedes still feel a deep unease about the far right and polls point to a knife-edge vote with the centre-left opposition, which is backing Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson for prime minister, holding a small but narrowing lead.

A wider pattern across Europe

The election comes just days after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won an historic victory in Saxony-Anhalt, sending ripples through the political establishment and further undermining the unpopular centre-right government.

The AfD, bolstered by public angst over the scale of mass immigration, surged into first place on Sunday in the state election, the first time a far-right party has come within reach of power at the state level since the Second World War.

The outcome earned the recognition of US president Donald Trump, who seized the opportunity to praise the party and criticise the “absolutely horrible Immigration rules and regulations which have hurt Germany so badly”.

Across Europe, mainstream governments continue to be reshaped by pressure from the far-right, adopting populist language and policies in an attempt to stay relevant. Sweden’s election, like Germany before it, will be another test of where that leads.