According to a former colonel of Polish intelligence, Moscow's current goal is to influence public sentiment, deepen divisions and weaken trust in Western alliances. The services have been penetrating Polish political circles for years, paying particular attention to exploiting Polish-Ukrainian antagonisms and environments susceptible to disinformation.
In the current situation, all Russian intelligence services and auxiliary institutions are operating at full speed in Poland. I assume that the Russians mobilized all available resources and used all possibilities, emphasizes Severski in an interview with PAP.
According to Seversky, Russian intelligence uses all intelligence techniques: agent intelligence, satellite intelligence, inspirational and disinformation activities. The priority is, among others: anti-Ukrainian and anti-German attitude of Polish society.
They don't mean that we - sorry for the colloquialism - make out with Russians, but that we don't like Ukrainians, Germans or Brussels. And that we like the policies of Trump and the AfD. (...) It is so clear that it does not require any comment. I know that a large part of society does not understand this, but the elites are aware of it - says Severski.
Polish-Ukrainian antagonisms as a tool of influence. "We made this happen ourselves"
According to the former officer, Russian intelligence does not use new methods, but uses proven ways of influencing societies and deepening existing conflicts.
The NKVD used anti-Ukrainian sentiments among Polish society for its own purposes in the interwar period. And very effectively, says Severski.
He reminds that in the interwar period, the Bolsheviks used the Ukrainian right-wing extremism in response to the development of Polish-Ukrainian cooperation. When a form of Polish-Ukrainian cooperation was emerging under the aegis of Piłsudski, which was dangerous to Russia's interests, the Bolsheviks activated the right-wing Ukrainian extremism. Currently, they are taking advantage of Poles' attachment to history.
Russians have deep, I would say centuries-old, experience in dealing with various ethnic or national conflicts between Poles and Ukrainians, he points out.
We ourselves have made historical policy become an important element of Polish statehood, so now we bear the consequences, he says.
"Such people in Poland constitute approximately 15 percent of society"
In his opinion, Russia may want to organize part of the electorate susceptible to conspiracy theories, disinformation and undermining scientific findings. He mentions anti-vaxxers, conspiracy theorists and people who question the basic foundations of modern science, which he describes as "rather right-wing".
Such people are susceptible to manipulation and defy common sense in every society. We can safely assume that in Poland they constitute approximately 15%. society, and such a percentage in democratic conditions may determine state policy, strategy, and the most important issues relating to our existence. The Russians know this very well and "love" these dozen or so percent, he notes.
According to him, Russia is trying to unite this part of society around some idea and give these people political agency. From the Kremlin's point of view, slogans attacking the European Union and NATO may be particularly useful.
The idea of "sovereignism" is ideal from the Kremlin's perspective, because it strikes at the foundations of our security and even existence - the European Union and the North Atlantic Alliance. This is the perfect umbrella under which to develop anti-state activities, he says.
The former colonel of Polish intelligence also points out that the use of political and social movements for influence operations has historical precedents.
