Tamil Nadu 2026 Assembly Election: Exit Polls Show Tight Race as Counting Approaches
Axis My India projects Vijay's TVK could win up to 120 seats in debut election, while DMK-led alliance retains lead in most polls
Quick Look
- Tamil Nadu's 2026 assembly election counting begins May 2 across 234 constituencies, with the state recording 84.80% voter turnout.
- While most exit polls project the DMK-led alliance to retain power, Axis My India predicts a breakthrough for Vijay's TVK with 98-120 seats.
- Other polls give DMK alliance 92-145 seats, AIADMK alliance 60-100 seats, and TVK 0-40 seats depending on the agency.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Tamil Nadu is a key state in Indian politics with 234 assembly seats. The 2026 election features three major political forces: the ruling DMK led by MK Stalin seeking re-election, the opposition AIADMK led by Edappadi K Palaniswami, and the new TVK party led by actor-politician Vijay making its electoral debut.
Tamil Nadu's 2026 assembly election has set the stage for a closely fought contest, with counting day expected to bring clarity after weeks of high-decibel campaigning and strong voter turnout. Trends will begin to emerge from 8am on May 2, as counting gets underway across the state's 234 constituencies. Data will be released in real time on the Election Commission website, alongside live coverage, analysis, and seat tallies on The Times of India.
Polling for the 2026 election was conducted in a single phase, with crores of voters participating across the state. Turnout remained robust, continuing Tamil Nadu's trend of high electoral participation. Tamil Nadu recorded one of its highest-ever voter turnouts, exceeding 84.80%.
The ruling DMK, led by chief minister MK Stalin, is seeking another term based on its governance and welfare initiatives. Meanwhile, opposition AIADMK, headed by Edappadi K Palaniswami, is aiming for a comeback. At the same time, TVK, led by Vijay, has emerged as a disruptive force, especially among urban and young voters.
In Tamil Nadu, while most exit polls indicate that the DMK-led alliance under chief minister M K Stalin is on course to retain power, Axis My India predicts the rise of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by actor-politician Vijay. The Axis My India exit poll projected that TVK would get 98-120 seats in its debut election, DMK-led alliance 92-100 seats, and the five-party alliance led by BJP 22-32 seats.
According to Axis My India, Vijay is also ahead of Stalin in terms of choice for the next chief minister. While Stalin was supported by 35 per cent of those polled, Vijay got the support of 37 per cent.
Several other exit polls predicted that the alliance led by the ruling DMK will return to power in the state. People's Pulse projected 125-145 seats for DMK-led alliance and 65-80 seats for AIADMK-led alliance, which includes BJP. It projected TVK getting two to six seats.
Tamil Nadu has 234 assembly seats. Even conservative estimates suggest that TVK could influence outcomes in multiple constituencies by redistributing votes. According to exit poll projections by Matrize, DMK and its allies will get 122-132 seats and AIADMK and its allies 80-100 seats. It said TVK would get 0-6 Assembly seats.
The exit poll by P-MARQ projected 125-145 seats for the DMK-led alliance, 60-70 seats for the AIADMK-led alliance, and one to six seats for TVK. People's Insight projected 120-140 seats for the DMK-led alliance, 60-70 for the AIADMK-led alliance, and 30-40 seats for TVK.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
DMK-led alliance likely to form government based on majority of exit polls
Likely · Within days
TVK will emerge as a significant political force even if seat count is lower than Axis My India projection
Very likely · Within weeks
Open Questions
- Which party will actually form the government?
- Will TVK's performance match the Axis My India projections?
- How will vote redistribution affect traditional DMK and AIADMK strongholds?
