Tension is rising: Warplanes took off! Black Sea detail from an expert

In Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, shelter alerts were issued in many regions the previous night due to unidentified unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) coming from Russia or Belarus. While NATO warplanes tasked with protecting the Baltic airspace took off immediately, Kaunas, Lithuania's second largest city with a population of 300 thousand, was also placed on alert and Vilnius and Kaunas airports were closed for a while. Lithuanian Chief of General Staff Giedrius Premeneckas stated that attempts to shoot down UAVs were unsuccessful and that the vehicles may have deviated from their route due to electronic warfare.

On the same night, UAVs believed to belong to Ukraine targeted Russia's strategic export port Ust-Luga on the Baltic coast. Leningrad Regional Governor Aleksandr Drozdenko announced that 150 UAVs were shot down in the region, a fire broke out in the port, three workers were injured and a transformer station was disabled. Following these developments, Finland also imposed temporary restrictions on air and sea traffic in the east of the Gulf of Finland against possible threats. While the recent violation of NATO airspace by UAVs and the risk of the war spreading to border countries have increased concerns, the Kiev administration points to signal jamming activities, and Russia accuses Ukraine of using NATO airspace.

These developments, which have brought the tension in the region to its peak, affect NATO's deterrence and the possible repercussions of the crisis. Dr. Lecturer of Political Science and International Relations at Istanbul Aydin University. We asked Murat Jane.

"THE REAL DANGER IS MISCALCULATIONS AND INCREASE OF THE CRISIS"

Dr. stated that the developments in the Baltic can be considered as a serious security warning. Murat Jane reminded that similar tensions were experienced in the region during the summer months and said that it would be quite assertive to see these events as a development that directly started a NATO-Russia war.

Pointing out that the biggest risk in the region is miscalculations, Dr. Jane said, "The real danger is that aircraft whose identity and purpose are not fully known will lead to certain miscalculations in the region where the crisis is already escalating. The slightest tension can escalate the crisis even further."

Stating that defining the threat correctly and determining the measure of political response has become as important as military capacity, Jane pointed out the discussions at the last NATO summit on how Article 5 could be evaluated and noted that both NATO and Russia have high military capacity, but how the process will take place politically will be decisive.

WHO REALLY SENT THE UAVS?

Stating that it is possible to consider the violations as a 'gray zone strategy', Dr. Murat Jane explained that such activities, which Russia frequently resorts to, aim to pressure the other side before it comes to the brink of war, measure the reaction time and impose costs on defense.

Jane stated that the more the other party's pulse is measured, the more their expenditures and efforts will increase, and emphasized that, on the other hand, the fact that the UAVs come from Russia or Belarus does not necessarily prove that they were sent by these countries.

Reminding that Lithuanian officials also announced that the identity of the vehicles was not certain and that some of the UAVs used in the Ukrainian attacks may have deviated due to electronic warfare, Jane said that a deliberate roll call and unintentional transfer of war across the border should be distinguished.

HAS NATO'S DETERRENCE COLLAPSED?

Dr. also stated that the comments that NATO could not open fire due to the rules of engagement are not true. Jane said, "Two interception attempts were made in Lithuania, but it was announced that no fire was opened on the city of Kaunas due to the safety of civilians. The details of the rules of engagement are not fully public, so it would not be right to attribute the failure in the field directly to the rules. Failure to shoot down a UAV is an important shortcoming, but this alone does not mean that NATO's entire deterrence has collapsed."

WHY DID UKRAINE HIT THE RUSSIAN PORT?

Commenting on Ukraine's targeting of the Ust-Luga port, which plays a key role in Russia's oil/oil products and grain exports, and the measures taken by Finland, Dr. Jane stated that there is not yet enough data to say that the center of gravity of the war has moved to the Baltic.

However, Jane said that the Russia-Ukraine War is no longer limited to two countries, and its economic and geographical sphere of influence has expanded to include Eastern Europe and NATO, and stated that the basic logic of the Ust-Luga attack is to suppress the revenue and logistics infrastructure that enables Russia to continue the war, together with the forces on the front.

Emphasizing that Finland's temporary air and sea traffic restrictions are purely an effort to manage the risk, Jane noted that these measures alone do not mean mobilization or preparation for participating in the war.

Security in the Baltics is no longer just about ports; Stating that it also includes submarine cables, energy connections and trade continuity, Dr. Jane said that NATO's 'Baltic Sentry' activity is aimed at protecting this critical infrastructure. Emphasizing that real security is not only preventing the attack, but also ensuring the continuation of daily life and trade when the attack occurs, Jane underlined the need for rapid information sharing, alternative connections and rapid repair capacity after damage between port operators and military authorities.

Türkiye'S BLACK SEA BALANCE AND MEDIATION ROLE

"Will this state of alarm in the Baltic line increase Türkiye's burden in the Black Sea by shifting NATO's military priorities to the north? How will this crisis affect Ankara's mediator position?" Dr Jane, to whom we asked, underlined that every reinforcement in the north does not automatically mean that resources and power will be withdrawn from the Black Sea.

However, the expert also stated that Black Sea security is very critical for Türkiye, and that the escalation of the crisis in the region and the instability created by both Ukrainian and Russian drones on the Black Sea coast are a reality.

Murat Jane stated that if the demand for limited defense and surveillance opportunities increases, the expectation of contribution from Türkiye may increase, however, at the current stage, this should not be presented as an actual shift of forces.

WHAT IS THE MAIN GOAL FOR Türkiye?

Regarding Türkiye's mediation position, Dr. said that the crisis could have a two-way effect. Jane said the escalation increased the need for diplomatic contact, but mutual distrust made compromise difficult.