Tarcísio votes in SP — Photo: Marília Barbosa/g1
Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) was re-elected governor of São Paulo this Sunday (4), after defeating Fernando Haddad (PT) for the second consecutive time in a state election. With 62.85% of valid votes, against 36.22% for Haddad, the governor maintains command of the most populous state in the country for a new term. The result was confirmed at 7:39 pm, with 90% of the ballots counted by the Regional Electoral Court (TRE).
In 2026, the two repeated the 2022 dispute, but in a different configuration. If four years ago Tarcísio and Haddad needed to advance to the second round to decide the election, this time the two reached the final stretch of the first round as the main names in the race, without another candidate with representation in the National Congress competing in the election with them. The result was a first-round campaign with second-round characteristics.
The difference between the two was also different from four years ago. In 2022, Tarcísio beat Haddad in the second round by 55.27% to 44.73% of valid votes, a difference of 10.54 percentage points. In 2026, the distance was
Tarcísio is 51 years old, born in Rio de Janeiro, and was Minister of Infrastructure in the Bolsonaro government. (read profile below).
Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) during a campaign event in São Paulo in 2026. — Photo: Caiuá Maia/Disclosure
How was the campaign
With few competitive candidates and no major fluctuations in the polls throughout the campaign, the two concentrated the race for Palácio dos Bandeirantes, while the presidential dispute between Lula (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) occupied an increasing part of the political debate in the state.
Haddad spent the beginning of the year, before the pre-campaign, saying that he did not want to be a candidate and that he preferred to work on Lula's campaign, who is seeking another term. In the end, he was convinced by the president and left his government position to compete for Palácio dos Bandeirantes. Throughout this period, polls showed few changes in the scenario: Haddad remained in the 20% range of voting intentions, while Tarcísio appeared in the 40% range, until the latest Datafolhas which took the PT member to 30% and the governor to 50% of the total votes.
The reduced number of competitive candidates in the dispute for Palácio dos Bandeirantes this year and the polarization between Bolsonaristas and PT members meant that activists on both sides were not excited about the state dispute, once again focusing the discussions on the presidential election and also on the dispute for the two senatorial vacancies in the state, which remains technically tied between four candidates.
Celebration of the re-election of Tarcísio de Freitas — Photo: Letícia Dauer/g1
As polls indicated the dispute was likely to be settled in the first round, due to the presence of only two competitive candidates, and the loose leadership of governor Tarcísio de Freitas, supported mainly by the crystallization of the conservative vote in the interior of the state, the state dispute was losing ground to the other positions in dispute this year, mainly for Lula (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).
The campaign began with a sequence of problems that could have fueled the debate about state management. In May, an accident at a Sabesp construction site killed four people in the West Zone of São Paulo.
At the end of June, a train from the concessionaire Trívia Trens caught fire and, amid the crisis on the lines operated by the company, the concession was temporarily returned to CPTM. Despite the episodes, the climate in the state dispute cooled throughout the campaign.
According to political scientist Marco Antonio Carvalho Teixeira, professor at Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), the scandals involving Daniel Vorcaro, owner of Banco Master, and the film "Dark Horse" and the fights within the Federal Supreme Court (STF) contributed to taking the focus away from local agendas and deflating the race for Palácio dos Bandeirantes in 2026.
"The national situation obviously affected São Paulo. And Tarcísio also tried to stay away from this process due to his comfortable position in the research and the scandals involving Flávio. So much so that he did not support Flávio Bolsonaro so emphatically, which he did only in this final stretch and avoided participating in a public debate", he said.
"Tarcísio kept his distance from Flávio so that Flávio wouldn't pull him down. And, at the same time, his comfortable position [in the polls] also recommended that he not leave the local debate. The scandals, both Vorcaro and Dark Horse and all the Supreme Court issues, occupied the national agenda, everywhere. (...) This ended up affecting the state agenda and taking space for the discussion of the state's local problems", explained Carvalho.
political scientist and sociologist Antonio Lavareda states that "the campaign ended up being nationalized, especially due to the fact that the opposition candidate [Haddad] was the former Minister of Finance" of the Lula (PT) government.
On the other hand, Fernando Haddad's own resistance to running again for governor of São Paulo, given a scenario considered difficult for the PT in the state, also contributed to a PT campaign with less mobilization, according to experts interviewed.
"The opposition's delay in defining a name always helps those seeking re-election, because it effectively reduces pre-campaign time, enabling them to continue without suffering major attacks, capitalizing at full steam, without direct contestation, on the 'incumbent's advantage'", said Antonio Lavareda.
The scenario of an election decided in the first round also raises a discussion about the PT's strategy in São Paulo: does the result reinforce the historical difficulty of the left in the state or did the choice of Haddad as candidate contribute to reducing the chances of taking the dispute to the second round?
For the expert, the explanation may lie less in the strength of the conservative electorate or in the isolated choice of candidate and more in the strategy adopted by the party.
"It may have been a strategic error to opt for a binary contest against a governor with high approval. With more candidates, at least one other with reasonable weight and positioning more to the center, the chance of a second round occurring would have been greater. Imagining that enough voters would break away from Tarcísio and cross the street to endorse Haddad was an implausible bet. The electoral expression of former governor Márcio França, it seems, ended up being wasted on the PT's vice president", he stated. Lavareda.
Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) and Fernando Haddad (PT) are competing for the second time for the position of governor of SP this Sunday (4). — Photo: Montagem/g1/Disclosure/TV Globo
Numbers and themes
The 2026 campaign was marked by Tarcísio's attempt to present the results of his first administration and, at the same time, maintain his political association with the Bolsonarist camp. Haddad, in turn, sought to explore problems in the state administration and nationalize the dispute by linking Tarcísio to former president Jair Bolsonaro.
Public safety was among the main themes. Haddad's campaign began to question the state government's actions in the face of the presence of criminal factions and criticize the political relationships between Tarcísio's allies and people suspected of having links to the PCC.
The topic reached the last debate, held by Globo on Tuesday (29). Haddad spoke about the entry of the Red Command into the interior and accused the PCC of infiltrating public and private institutions. Tarcísio countered by citing the reduction in criminal indicators during his administration and attacked relationships between politicians linked to the PT and people being investigated.
The dispute was also nationalized. Haddad associated Tarcísio with the Bolsonaro government and criticized the handling of the pandemic during the former president's administration. Tarcísio, on the other hand, brought to the debate criticisms of the Lula government and Haddad's performance as Finance Minister.
Sabesp becomes one of the main symbols of the dispute
The privatization of Sabesp was another of the main themes of the campaign. Haddad made the company one of the main pillars of his candidacy and criticized the privatization carried out during the Tarcísio government. The PT member spoke about tariffs, supply and recent episodes involving the provision of the service and defended reviewing privatization.
Tarcísio went on to defend the company's results and argued that privatization increased investment capacity. In the last debate, Haddad cited recent supply problems and guidance from Sabesp related to water consumption in Baixada Santista. Tarcísio responded by saying that there was no potability problem and that the situation was related to the turbidity caused by the rain.
The privatization of the company also appeared as one of the points of contrast between the two projects. On television, Haddad promised to review privatizations carried out during the current administration, while Tarcísio focused his propaganda on the results and deliveries of his government.
Health and education were also targets of attacks
Health was another recurring theme. Haddad criticized queues and service problems and presented proposals to expand the range of services. Tarcísio responded by highlighting measures adopted during his administration, such as investments in digital health and telemedicine.
In the final debate, Haddad also attacked the state government for the situation of atypical children in schools. Tarcísio responded by highlighting the results of educational policy and the so-called gold seal granted by the Ministry of Education to São Paulo.
Education, transportation and infrastructure completed the list of state topics discussed by the two. Haddad's campaign also explored concessions and privatizations of public services, while Tarcísio presented works and investments as hallmarks of his administration.
Who is Tarcisio
Engineer and former Minister of Infrastructure in the Jair Bolsonaro government, Tarcísio de Freitas entered electoral politics in 2022, when he was chosen by Bolsonaro to run for the governor of São Paulo for the Republicans. That year, when contesting his first election, he beat Haddad in the second round and became the first governor of the state elected by the party.
In the São Paulo government, he maintained political proximity to Bolsonaro and consolidated a leadership position in the right-wing camp in São Paulo. Throughout his first term, his management had as one of its main highlights the agenda of concessions and privatizations, including Sabesp, in addition to investments in infrastructure.
In the 2026 campaign, Tarcísio sought to balance his association with Bolsonarism with the defense of his own government. The governor also sought to expand his presence in Greater São Paulo. The campaign opened in Osasco, the fifth largest electoral college in the state, in a strategy to advance in a region in which Haddad had performed better in 2022.
Public security gained space in the government program for the second term, appearing as the first of the ten axes presented by the campaign, ahead of health and education.
Haddad tried again for the São Paulo government
This was the second time that Haddad, 63 years old, ran for governor of São Paulo. Before that, he was mayor of the capital between 2013 and 2016 and Minister of Education in the Lula and Dilma Rousseff governments. He also ran for Presidency of the Republic in 2018 and, later, took over the Ministry of Finance in the third Lula government.
In the 2026 campaign, Haddad prioritized public security, education, health, mobility and criticism of privatizations, especially Sabesp. It also toured cities in the interior during the pre-campaign, in an attempt to expand the PT's presence beyond the capital and Greater São Paulo.
Security was presented as one of the candidate's priorities, in an area traditionally associated with right-wing discourse. Haddad also tried to explore the strain caused by problems in public services and question the results presented by Tarcísio.
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