Tarik Skubal contract predictions: Ace's new deal could break multiple MLB records for a pitcher

Tarik Skubal is about to become a very, very rich man. The two-time Cy Young winner and arguably the best pitcher in baseball hits free agency this winter, and it stands to reason that he'll break the record for highest-paid pitcher in MLB history, both by total value and average annual value.

By total value, Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto currently holds that record thanks to the 12-year, $325 million contract he signed ahead of the 2024 season (we're eliminating Shohei Ohtani from the running for obvious reasons, though his 10-year, $700 million deal would clearly lead the list).

As for AAV, Ohtani again tops the class at $70 million a year, but for those who only pitch, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander share the record at $43.33 million annually.

The expectation is that Skubal will break both records, even as the owners try to tamp down on spending in the ongoing CBA negotiations. Just how high could those figures go? CBS Sports experts pulled out their calculators.

Contract predictions

Mike Axisa: Seven years and $325.5 million. That's $46.5 million per season and it would break the records for average annual value (Max Scherzer's and Justin Verlander's $43.3 million) and total guarantee (Yoshinobu Yamamoto's $325 million) for a pitcher. I would expect there to be an opt out because those are just the cost of doing business these days. Maybe even multiple opt outs. Scott Boras loves to break records, though, and this contract allows him to break two.

Dayn Perry: I'll say eight years, $350 million. Likewise, that sets the record for total contract value and AAV for a pitcher. Normally, I'd ding him a bit for those elbow problems in his walk year, but he was mostly dominant after returning ahead of schedule. I also think Skubal will benefit from an aggressive pre-lockout market and from a pretty thin free agent class overall.