Tasmanian Senate Seat Opens as Liberal Incumbent Wendy Askew Retires

The race is on for at least one Tasmanian Senate seat at the next election with Liberal incumbent Wendy Askew deciding to retire after a term and a half.

Senator Askew's decision to not recontest leaves a seat open for a new Liberal, as One Nation's surge in popularity puts it in contention for up to two seats.

A political analyst says it may not matter who replaces Senator Askew, with voters likely favouring parties over candidate names in the Senate, offering One Nation a good chance.

Senator Askew was appointed in 2019, replacing her brother David Bushby in a casual vacancy in which the party gets to choose.

She won the second spot on the Liberals's Senate ticket in 2022 behind Senator Jonathon Duniam, beating out long-serving senator Eric Abetz who ultimately lost his seat.

In a statement to the ABC, Senator Askew said with Liberal preselection now open she had decided not to nominate.

"It is a genuine honour to have the privilege of representing the people of Tasmania in the Senate as a member of the Liberal Party," she said.

Senator Askew, who has another two years left in the Senate before the next election, said the federal Liberal team "remains united" in holding Labor to account.

"At the next election Tasmanians will face a clear and important choice: continue down the current path, or support meaningful change in 2028," she said.

The ABC understands former Tasmanian Liberal minister Sarah Courtney will nominate for Liberal Senate preselection.

One Nation likely to pick up one to two seats on current polling

At the 2025 federal election the Liberals won two seats after receiving 1.65 quotas.

Since then, One Nation has seen a surge in popularity, putting the party in line for one or even two Senate seats.

Labor is seen as most likely to lose a seat to One Nation, currently holding three of them after Tammy Tyrrell joined the party.

Senator Tyrrell was elected as part of the Jacqui Lambie Network before going independent, and then joining Labor.

Political analyst Kevin Bonham said the Liberal's second Senate spot was also in danger of falling to One Nation.

Dr Bonham said this swing was a greater issue than losing an incumbent candidate, most of whom he said will "have very little impact on the party vote".

Dr Bonham said most people vote on party lines, although there are exceptions for big names — like in the case of former Labor senator Lisa Singh who won a seat despite being placed fifth on the ticket.

"You do get some votes from having name recognition, particularly if they are a little bit different and can pick up that below-the-line vote that they can bring to the ticket," Dr Bonham said.

"But most of the time the voting is for the party."