Texans vs. Jaguars prediction, odds, time: 2026 NFL London game picks by proven model

Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars can take an early stranglehold on the AFC South division when they take on C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans in an NFL Week 6 matchup in London, England. The Jaguars (4-1) remained in London after a last-second 19-17 win over the Eagles at Tottenham Stadium. The Texans (1-4) enter the country off their first win of the season, a 26-3 victory over the Titans. Ironically, the last time the team made the trip to London was in 20-19, and it resulted in a 26-3 win over these Jaguars. Receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. will make his debut with the Texans after being traded from Arizona.

Kickoff is set for 9:30 a.m. ET from Wembley Stadium in London. The latest Texans vs. Jaguars odds have Jacksonville as a 2.5-point favorite. The over/under for total points scored is 42.5. Before making any Jaguars vs. Texans picks, be sure to see the Texans vs. Jaguars predictions from SportsLine's proven model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $5,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 6 of the 2026 NFL season on a 57-46 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has zoned in on Texans vs. Jaguars. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Jaguars vs. Texans:

Top Texans vs. Jaguars predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Jaguars vs. Texans, the model is going Over 42.5 points at betting apps. The Texans have been known as a defense-first team, but the team has scored 26-plus points three times in five games, and allowed 30-plus twice. Lead RB David Montgomery is out, perhaps putting the ball more in the hands of Stroud, who has six TDs with zero INTs on the season. Adding Harrison to the pass attack with Tank Dell gives Houston a potential power boost.

Meanwhile, the Under has hit in four straight Jaguars games. Their defense has held four of five opponents to 17 points or less. These teams combined for 65 points in their last matchup. Lawrence is averaging 235 pass yards per game with 11 TDs. He can thrive against a Texans defense that ranks 26th vs. the pass.

The model projects 45 combined points as the Over clears 53% of the time. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Texans vs. Jaguars picks

In addition to going Over, the model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. See what it is at SportsLine.