Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction, pick, odds, spread: Longhorns, Sooners clash in Red River Rivalry

No. 1 Texas hopes to win its third straight Red River Rivalry matchup against Oklahoma on Saturday afternoon at the State Fair of Texas. The Longhorns reached No. 1 for the third straight season under Steve Sarkisian, this time after outlasting Ohio State in Week 2. The Longhorns rank among the best defenses in college football, and field quarterback Arch Manning.

The Sooners also rank among the best defenses in the sport, but the offense has backslid dramatically under coach Brent Venables. Oklahoma is off to a 2-2 start after a 41-13 loss to No. 2 Georgia last week as the program turned the ball over four times, including a miserable fumble by quarterback John Mateer that was returned for a touchdown.

Oklahoma has lost three of four Red River Rivalries under Brent Venables, averaging only 3.0 points per game in those losses. Texas won 23-6 last year as the Sooners turned the ball over three times and were held without a touchdown.

Texas vs. Oklahoma: Need to know

Historically bad offense: Oklahoma's offense has been a disaster through the first several weeks, averaging an astonishing 11.5 points per game against Power Four competition. While quarterback John Mateer has been the primary target, the Sooners are averaging only 2.9 yards per carry, the worst mark in the SEC. Oklahoma failed to score a point against Georgia until trailing 28-0 in the third quarter, and Texas's defense rates higher in many metrics.

Rise of Simmons: Texas defensive end Colin Simmons has been regarded as one of the best in the sport, but his performance against Tennessee will go down in the record books. The junior set a Texas record with 5.5 sacks against freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon, which ultimately led to Brandon's benching one week later. Simmons had 29.5 tackles for loss and 21 sacks in his first two seasons, and hopes to build on that as a junior.

Which Arch do we get?: Texas quarterback Arch Manning is a lightning rod because of his famous last name, but the junior oscillates between brilliance and inconsistency -- even in the same game. In the first half against Ohio State, Manning connected on only 7 of 14 passes for 44 yards. Against Texas A&M last season, he was 5-of-15 for 28 yards. Oklahoma is probably not good enough to take advantage, but Manning needs to start faster for Texas to maintain its No. 1 ranking.

Where to watch Texas vs. Oklahoma live

Date: Saturday, October 10 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET

Location: Cotton Bowl -- Dallas, Texas

TV: ABC | Live stream: Fubo (try free)

Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction, picks

It's always dangerous to bet on a big line in a major rivalry game, but it's getting harder than ever to trust Brent Venables' squad to come through. Three of Oklahoma's four games against Texas under Venables cleared a 17-point margin of victory, and this Sooners squad might be the worst one yet. College football sometimes surprises you, but... this would be a surprise. Pick: Texas -8.5