The Economist: The global LNG market is set to move from supply shortages to supply gluts

The serious shortage of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the world, observed against the backdrop of the conflict in the Middle East, may give way to excess supply on the market in the future, warns The Economist magazine.

“The world is faced with a colossal shortage of liquefied natural gas. Over time, this could lead to an equally destructive surplus,” the publication writes.

Four years ago, Europe was struggling to find replacements for 40% of its gas imports from Russia, the Economist notes. She then turned to Qatar, which, however, declared force majeure after the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East and informed buyers that it would not be able to fulfill its contracts. Since March, the publication clarifies, the country has shipped only 98 LNG shipments, which is 536 units less than the level of the same period in 2025.

The shortage of LNG on the global market is 39 million tons, which is 9% of last year's total supply, and this figure continues to grow. In addition, LNG prices are rising rapidly.

“The Gulf crisis has shattered the pre-war belief among most LNG experts that the global market would be in surplus in 2026. However, many of the new LNG projects on which that proposal was based are still underway. Paradoxically, the worse the current crisis, the greater the potential for future oversupply,” the publication writes, citing Six One Commodities analyst Aimee Parpia. (Aimie Parpia).

It is noted that new LNG projects could increase annual global supply to 630 million tons by 2030, which is almost 60% above the 2025 level. At the same time, demand will grow more slowly than expected. Many countries are restarting coal-fired power plants, launching ambitious renewable energy tenders, and again considering nuclear power.

The real test for the LNG market is yet to come, notes the Economist. Some buyers are postponing purchases in the hope that prices will drop. Many others are desperately betting on new sources of LNG that would allow them to reduce their dependence on Gulf states. However, both of these strategies come with risks. If they are not justified, this may become clear only when it is too late, the publication emphasizes.