History suggests that Democrats will gain seats, as the party in power usually cedes representation in the midterms. In 2022, Democrats under President Joe Biden lost nine seats in the House, and in 2018, during Trump’s first term, Republicans lost about 40 seats in the lower chamber.
Democrats are widely expected to gain enough House seats to take control of that chamber. The Senate remains a toss up amid several tightly contested races, many in red states Trump won in 2024. Between campaigns, super PACs and billionaire donors, hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent on a handful of races.
Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan is running for another term against Democrat Mary Peltola, who previously served as the first Alaska native elected to Congress. But there's also a Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. on the ballot, and his candidacy was part of a broader effort by Democrats to help Peltola’s bid, according to a recent New York Times report. Alaska’s Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy ordered an investigation into Peltolas campaign following the report.
Polling has indicated that Sullivan and Peltola are neck-in-neck, with Peltola occasionally gaining a slim lead. While Trump won Alaska in 2024 by 13 points, the race appears to be close enough that he travelled to Wasilla on Oct. 13 to campaign on Sullivan’s behalf.
Alaska uses rank-choice voting, which means that voters will rank their top candidates as opposed to selecting one. This month, the Justice Department filed a preemptive lawsuit seeking to block certification of the election results in Alaska’s Senate race if the election results suggest the incumbent lost due to “voter confusion” due to two Dan. Sullivans on the ballot.
This is another state that Trump won by 13 points in 2024. Yet the recent polling suggests a true toss-up. Hinson, who has represented Iowa in the House since 2021, has distanced herself from Trump, calling for an “immediate end” to the Iran war. Trump campaigned alongside Hinson last week.
Michigan’s open Senate rate has emerged as perhaps the most hostile of the midterms. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a physician and former public health director, has the chance to be the country’s first Muslim senator. He’s facing off against Mike Rogers, a former FBI agent who served in the House before losing a 2024 Senate bid. Both are vying to replace Sen. Gary Peters, the Democrat who has held the seat since 2015.
El-Sayed won his party’s nomination after a fierce primary against Rep. Haley Stevens, in which his criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza became a lightning rod issue. Since the primaries, prominent Democrats including Barack Obama, Kamala Harris, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York have all come to Michigan to stump alongside him.
Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican, is seeking a sixth term in Maine, a moderate blue state. She is facing off against Democrat Troy Jackson, a logger and former president of the Maine Senate, who became the party’s nominee after the winner of the primary, Graham Platner, withdrew from the race amid sexual assault allegations, which he denies.
Main is the only state Trump did not win in the 2024 election where an incumbent Republican is up for reelection. Collins has distanced herself from Trump across many policy issues and on the campaign trail. She voted to convict Trump following his impeachment after the January 6 riots on the Capitol. Yet she’s also drawn criticism for backing Trump’s previous picks for the Supreme Court, despite her longstanding support for Roe v. Wade, which the Court later overturned.
Collins is chair of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee and frequently boasts on the campaign trial of federal dollars she helped steer to the state. Recent polls show Jackson barely leading Collins, in a race that is widely viewed as a toss-up.
More than $200 million has been contributed in outside spending on this race, making it one of the most expensive this midterm season. Yet the race is a special election to only finish the remainder of Vance’s term. The winner will need to run again in 2028 to secure a full six-year term.
Marshall, a physician and former military officer, has received the support of Trump, who called him “one of my favorite Senators.” Democrats have highlighted Marshall’s pursuit of unpaid medical bills from patients from a decade ago. State court records show that he filed more than 700 of these debt-collection lawsuits, which have been a source of controversy for his campaign.
Recent polls have shown Hamilton leading up to five points against Marshall, prompting a flurry of last-minute investments by both sides into the state. Republicans acknowledged the extent of their concerns about holding on to Kansas when they moved money there after pulling out of North Carolina’s Senate race.
In perhaps the most closely-watched race of the midterms, James Talarico has a chance to become the first Democratic Senator in Texas since 1993. He faces off against Republican nominee Attorney General Ken Paxton, who defeated the incumbent, Sen. John Cornyn, in a Republican runoff in May.
The House race has received outsized attention over domestic abuse allegations against Miller, which he has denied. Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno, who is Miller’s former father-in-law, said over the summer that Miller should “seek professional help.” Moreno was joined by Ohio’s other Senator, Republican John Husted, in publicly urging Miller to exit the race in a district that has traditionally voted Republican and which Trump carried in 2024 by 11 points. Cook’s Political Report rates the race a toss-up.
