Ever since the election, both right-wing parties and business lobbyists have put pressure on the Centre. Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist is herself anchored in an environment where most people look with great suspicion not only at V and MP, but also at the Social Democrats.
The Left Party's unwavering stance on the government issue – to only release governments the party itself sits in – has become a weighty argument for those who think the Center should grab Åkesson's opening. Magdalena Andersson therefore hopes that her no to V in the government will strengthen the forces in Thand Ringqvist's party who want to stick to the line of not giving SD influence.
The question is urgent because the next prime ministerial vote is likely to be about Ulf Kristersson. If Thand Ringqvist is to avoid extra elections by switching to Kristersson's team, it probably has to happen now. If Kristersson falls, only a fourth vote remains, where the choice is between an S-led government - perhaps with V - and a by-election. And the Center really does not want a new election.
For the Left Party, Andersson's announcement is a difficult setback. Earlier on Sunday, the V leadership was able to rejoice that the S leader branded the bourgeois four-party alternative as a new Tidö government, and promised not to help it in any way. Just hours later, Andersson's bitter pill comes that Nooshi Dadgostar can forget the idea of ministerial posts.
The S leader has a double message to V – a sugary promise if Dadgostar nibbles – which is replaced by a political threat if she nods. Andersson assured that V can get a lot of politics and also a cooperation agreement with leftist officials in the government office and influence over preparation processes. Of course V's voters must have an impact, was the S leader's message.
If the Left Party rejects the proposal, a storm awaits Dadgostar. The social democratic apparatus, parts of the trade union movement and S-marked debaters will accuse the V leadership in strong terms of releasing a new Tidö government and thereby failing the sick, low-income earners and immigrants.
"I hope V takes the time to reflect on what is at stake for people in our country," the S leader explained, saying there is "a lot at stake" for V's voters. Words aimed at creating pressure against Dadgostar within the Left Party, where there is already a certain nervousness about how the government drama will end.
There is no indication yet that the Left Party's leadership allows itself to be influenced. The left-wing strategy is long-term and is about breaking the party's historical exclusion. Being in a government provides political legitimacy and would allow the party to compete with the Social Democrats and the Green Party on equal terms. Not only about the voters, but also about the influence over the trade union movement and the people who today think like V - but choose to be left-wingers because it gives more influence.
Even if a retreat would now persuade the Center to release Andersson, the V management believes that Thand Ringqvist will continue to play the blackmail card in future negotiations. Which in the long run would force V to pursue Center politics. Better to stop now and come again in another election, reason the people around Dadgostar.
The future risks being most difficult for the Center Party. If the party chooses to be part of a four-party government that is dependent on Jimmie Åkesson's goodwill every day of the week, betrayal debate and voter flight await. The S leader set the tone when she called such an action on Sunday "the worst betrayal in modern political history."
A development in the style of the Liberals is in the cards.
If C, on the other hand, puts up a government that includes V, it will instead blow hard from the right. In the coming years, politics will be determined by how the Center handles its dilemma.
