Jimmie Åkesson's move to launch a government with the old alliance parties took many by surprise because the Sweden Democrats despise the alliance and its politics. In the party's historiography, the alliance parties have "destroyed Sweden". And Åkesson thinks the Center worst of all - during Annie Lööf's time SD and C became Swedish politics' bitterest antagonists.
Nevertheless, Jimmie Åkesson now wants to put the Center in the government. And not only that, the Centre's participation is even a requirement for SD to launch a moderate-led government.
It's about power and math. Through the Center's participation in a bourgeois government, the SD achieves a position of wave master in the Riksdag. If C is in the government, SD gets great power, not least over economic policy.
The state budget is the most important instrument a government has to push through its policies – it governs everything from taxes to welfare and climate policy. When the Riksdag decides on the budget, the proposal that receives the most votes in the final round wins. A bourgeois four-party government would be smaller than S+V+MP. Since V and MP in all situations prefer an S policy to a bourgeois one, they will ultimately vote for S - whether they have been given the opportunity to negotiate with S or not. Therefore, a bourgeois government needs to either get Åkesson's approval - or rule with the policies of the Social Democrats.
The SD leader has made it clear that he intends to work to maximize his influence. If the government wants support for its budget, it must also negotiate, is Åkesson's message.
It is in that light that Center leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist's demands on Ulf Kristersson should be seen - she requests that he present a "total package" with center-friendly policies that must be implemented without giving power to the SD.
It is an impossible task. All "packages" must sooner or later be negotiated with - or accepted - by the wave master Åkesson. There is no help to be had from the Social Democrats - Magdalena Andersson has already dashed all such hopes, if they ever existed.
But the government becoming fragile does not necessarily have to be a problem for the right-wing parties. In the extension, an additional election is tempting - which could lead to a comeback for Tidö.
As wave masters, the Sweden Democrats can overthrow the government by organizing a vote of no confidence. With a bourgeois minority government, Jimmie Åkesson has his finger on the impeachment button - and the parties on the left would not hesitate to help him.
A prime minister has the right to arrange a special election. If Ulf Kristersson gets the Center's and Åkesson's support to become prime minister, a shaky journey awaits - as we have seen - with a government that finds it difficult to govern. One way to resolve the parliamentary mess would then be to call a new election. The arguments would be there: First, the majority behind Andersson failed to organize a government, then the bourgeoisie fails to govern - an additional election then appears as a logical solution.
In such an election, Jimmie Åkesson and the Tidöparties can hope for the small advance required to create the same government that the Tidöparties went to election for - that is, a government with Sweden Democratic ministers.
Finally, Åkesson can achieve another goal by accepting the Center in the government - he can further weaken liberalism in Swedish politics. With the Center's reversal, the last bourgeois anti-SD bastion falls. And experience suggests that liberal parties that depend on SD have problems with voter support.
