
AI-generated summary
Trump is seeking to revitalize Republican support ahead of the November midterm elections amid low approval ratings tied to inflation and the Iran war. He has previously lamented the historical trend of the president's party losing seats in midterms and is pursuing unorthodox strategies to defy it.
During a long speech at a Republican convention in Dallas, Texas, Donald Trump sought to revitalise his conservative base, defending the unpopular war in Iran while trying to keep control of Congress in the November midterm elections by promising cash to every adult.
Trump strongly defended the Iran war, predicting victory and linking it directly to lower oil prices — before suggesting the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz should be renamed after him.
"Food prices and almost every other item are rapidly going down. And by the way, oil will be going down as soon as we win the war with Iran, which is taking place right now," Trump said.
But Trump appeared to acknowledge the war had taken a toll on the US economy. "We were doing great," he said, before turning to his economic advisers and telling them, "I hate to do this to you." He then explained that he had felt compelled to launch the conflict because Iran was perhaps "two, maybe three weeks away from having a nuclear weapon."
Trump also echoed other Republicans at the convention stirring up what he said was a wave of communism threatening the United States.
"It's going to be a communist country if they win," he warned.
"Your vote will decide whether our country stumbles at the starting gate of the next 250 years or surges forward and never ever looks back," he said.
Trump's $5,000 gambit
Donald Trump is betting on an extraordinary promise to shore up his party’s fortunes ahead of the November midterm elections: if Republicans keep control of the House and Senate, every American adult will receive cash.
"So if the Republicans win, you win with us and you get $5,000. It will be called the Trump dividend," Trump told Republicans in Texas, as the party struggles in polls against the Democrats.
Within an hour, Vice President JD Vance appeared to try to walk back Trump’s proposal — at least in part — by suggesting the dividend payments would not go to the wealthy. Vance suggested it could be paid for by US tariff revenues, though the suggested payment dwarfs what the US has taken in through the protectionist measures.
The promise would likely cost more than $1 trillion (€860bn) and require congressional approval, and would further exacerbate the country’s nearly $1.8 trillion (€1.55tr) annual budget deficit and concerns about inflation.
The sum would far exceed US tariff revenues even before the Supreme Court tossed much of the president’s tariff program last year.
He did not say where the money would come from, citing only that "our country is making so much money."
The national debt last month topped $40 trillion (€34.4tr) for the first time.
'I'm on the ballot'
Doubling down on his bet that he can help Republicans defy opinion polls and retain both houses of Congress on 3 November, Trump said: "I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot."
"I'm on the ballot, I'm on the ballot — just one more time," he told the crowd.
Opinion polls overwhelmingly show that Trump's approval ratings are in the low 30s, as voters become increasingly angry about high prices and the war he launched against Iran.
Trump has frequently lamented that, during the modern era, the president’s party almost always loses seats in Congress during the midterms, and he has looked for unorthodox ways to defy the trend, including this week’s convention.
"We’re going to change that," Trump said. "There’s no reason for it."
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Congress will not approve the $5,000 Trump dividend due to its massive cost and lack of funding mechanism
Likely · Within months
The Iran war will continue to be a central issue in Republican campaign messaging through the November elections
Very likely · Within months

At a Republican convention in Dallas, Donald Trump pledged a $5,000 payment to every American adult if Republicans win the House and Senate in the November midterms, calling it the 'Trump dividend.' The proposal, estimated to cost over $1 trillion, would require congressional approval and exacerbate the budget deficit. Vice President JD Vance later suggested the payments would exclude the wealthy and be funded by tariff revenues, though tariff income falls far short of the needed amount. Trump framed the pledge as a way to defy historical midterm losses for the president's party, while legal experts noted the plan would be lawful as a universal campaign promise, not a vote-buying scheme. Decision Desk HQ projects Democrats will win both chambers.

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