
AI-generated summary
The article comes against a backdrop of increased tensions between the United States and Iran, particularly around Iran's nuclear program. The IAEA recently adopted a resolution criticizing Iran's failure to comply with its obligations, supported by the United States and its allies. Furthermore, military clashes are taking place in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, and piracy is increasing in the Gulf of Aden.
Donald Trump predicted on Wednesday that the war with Iran would “stop immediately after the legislative elections” in early November in the United States.
The Iranians “cannot hold out any longer. They are desperately trying to influence the election,” said the American president, during an exchange with the press on the tarmac of Andrews Air Force Base, near Washington.
“Just after the election, the price of oil will fall,” said Donald Trump, judging that this would have to wait until after these legislative elections.
Also read War in Iran: Washington says it has destroyed five Iranian oil tankers, Tehran strikes American military bases
The board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) decided on Wednesday to refer the matter to the United Nations Security Council regarding Iran's “non-compliance” with its obligations in the nuclear field, two diplomats said.
The resolution was adopted by 23 votes for, 3 votes against and 8 abstentions, these two diplomats told AFP. Russia, China and Niger opposed its adoption. Iran has already affirmed that this resolution “will not lead to any results”.
“The resolution was adopted under political pressure from the United States and its allies. In our eyes, it is unfounded and will not lead to any results,” Iran’s permanent representative to the United Nations in Vienna Reza Najafi said on state television.
Also read “They use every opportunity”: in the Gulf of Aden, piracy resurfaces thanks to the war in Iran
Construction work has intensified significantly over the past year on Mount Kolang, in central Iran, suspected of housing an underground nuclear complex, according to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). In a note published Wednesday, the think tank estimates, on the basis of six years of satellite images, that the site has experienced “a clear intensification of construction work in 2026”.
In their report, the analysts highlight the transition “from an active excavation phase to probable internal construction work and the continuation of external reinforcement”. According to them, satellite images highlight the development of new roads, the construction of storage spaces, as well as the strengthening of access areas. Located near the Natanz nuclear complex, 250 km south of Tehran, Mount Kolang is considered by the intelligence services as a site likely to host future developments of the Iranian nuclear program.
“This assessment neither refutes nor confirms the assertions of the Israeli intelligence services according to which Iran transferred centrifuges to Mount Kolang,” the CSIS, however, qualifies. The center also believes that the site “is not yet able to carry out enrichment operations, if that is the desired objective”.
At the end of July, Donald Trump had threatened to bomb "very soon and very hard" this site, called "Pickaxe Mountain" in English - "Kolang" means "pickaxe" in Persian -, until then spared from strikes unlike the Natanz installations and the Fordo underground site. The latter was targeted in June 2025 by GBU-57 anti-bunker bombs capable of sinking several tens of meters deep before exploding.
However, Mount Kolang “is a fortified installation deeply buried in granite; its destruction would prove difficult, even with the most powerful American munitions, such as the GBU-57 bomb,” estimates the think tank, which pleads in favor of a diplomatic solution accompanied by surveillance mechanisms.
The construction of a nuclear complex in the granite bowels of the mountain began in 2020 after the fire, probably due to sabotage, in the Natanz centrifuge assembly hall. In October 2025, an earlier CSIS analysis of satellite images of construction work at Mount Kolang had already highlighted an acceleration in the pace of work as well as the installation of a security perimeter around the site.
Iran denies the existence of any secret underground nuclear complex under Mount Kolang. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN's nuclear watchdog, has requested information on Mount Kolang and access to the site.
An Israeli strike left one dead on Wednesday in southern Lebanon, according to state media, in the Nabatiyé region where Israel has been intensifying its shooting for several days despite the ceasefire. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Tuesday he was “deeply concerned by the escalation of Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, particularly in Nabatiyé and its surroundings,” according to his spokesperson.
Since announcing last week that it had taken control of the Ali Taher Ridge, a strategic Hezbollah position in Nabatiyé, the Israeli army has intensified its strikes in this region, which have left at least 29 dead since Friday, including 12 members of the same family.
According to the National News Agency (official Ani), Wednesday's Israeli strike targeted, by drone, a motorcycle on a road in Zibdine, killing a man. Hostilities had decreased in intensity since the end of June, thanks to an American-Iranian memorandum of understanding and a framework agreement between Lebanon and Israel. Tens of thousands of displaced people from the south had taken advantage of the lull to return home, but the recent intensification of shooting has almost emptied the town of Nabatiyé.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said Wednesday that a Sunni dignitary had been killed in a province in the northwest of the country, denouncing an attempt by separatist groups to sow division between Sunnis and Shiites. In a statement, the Guardians indicated that this dignitary, Mohammad Nezhati, had been killed “in a brutal terrorist crime committed by Zionist-American separatist groups”, without specifying when the facts had occurred.
This powerful Iranian armed force clarified that Mohammad Nezhati was also a member of the Basij volunteer paramilitary forces, which operate under the authority of the Revolutionary Guards. The term “separatist groups” is often used by Iranian authorities to refer to Kurdish opposition groups based in the Iraqi Kurdistan region, which Tehran has long accused of having ties to the United States and Israel, its sworn enemies. These two countries launched a joint offensive against the Islamic Republic at the end of February, triggering the war which is igniting the Middle East.
The Guardians did not specify whether members of these groups entered Iran from Iraq or whether the killing was carried out by agents already present in the country. “This crime was not only aimed at a prominent figure, but was also a desperate attempt to sow division among Muslims, undermine unity between Shiites and Sunnis, and deprive society of security and peace,” they said. With a Shiite majority, Iran has significant Sunni communities, particularly in its western and southeastern provinces.
Off the Horn of Africa, piracy thrives in the Gulf of Aden, one of the busiest maritime routes in the world, driven by the climate of extreme tension that reigns 2,000 kilometers further east, in the Strait of Hormuz. “The pirates’ methods have not necessarily evolved but they are capable of evolving further off the Somali coast,” warns Damien Chevallier, director of the maritime security division at the IMO, interviewed by Le Figaro. In detail, at least fifteen attacks recorded since the start of the year, including fourteen since the start of the war in Iran, according to the census carried out by AFP based on reports from the IMO Integrated Global Maritime Intelligence System. Since 2013 the region has recorded at most a few pirate attacks per year, and five in 2025.
The Gulf of Aden, a strategic region between Somalia and Yemen which connects the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, is today revealed as one of the most dangerous maritime areas for crews, with Somali pirates being responsible for 94% of hostage-taking of sailors worldwide, according to the IMO. “More than 90 innocent seafarers are currently held in captivity, their lives subject to constant uncertainty and threat,” warns IMO Secretary General, Mr. Arsenio Dominguez.
GULF OF ADEN: PIRACY RESURGRESSES
The US military announced on Tuesday that it had destroyed five oil ships in the Gulf region in retaliation for attacks by Iranian Revolutionary Guards on a US military ship over the past two days.
The US Middle East Command (Centcom) “destroyed five ships carrying Iranian crude oil on September 8 after the Revolutionary Guard Corps twice targeted a US Navy ship with ballistic missiles in the past two days,” it wrote in a statement.
He claims that the American ship “foiled” these attacks and that no American military personnel were injured. Centcom also specifies that it asked the crews to abandon their ship before they were hit.
Four ships (the Kaviz, the Charminar, the Horizon and the Riesco) were destroyed in the Gulf of Oman and a fifth (the Derya) near the island of Kharg, specifies the press release, accompanied by videos of these ships hit by an explosion, then in flames.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The war with Iran will end immediately after the US legislative elections in early November.
Speculative · Within weeks
Oil prices will fall right after the US election.
Speculative · Within weeks

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