Trump promised a swing district blitz. He's going to a lot of very red states

Early in September, President Trump gathered Republicans running in competitive races for a dinner in the White House Rose Garden. Prime aged beef burgers were on the menu as the president made a pledge to spend the final month before the midterms campaigning for the approximately 30 Republican candidates in attendance.

"I'm going to go to every one of those 35 places and we're going to see if we can get everyone elected," Trump said confidently.

The White House hasn't clarified which 35 places the president was talking about that night. Since then, Trump has campaigned with fewer than a third of those candidates. Rather than focus on swing states and swing districts as the president said he would, his travel schedule has taken him to a lot of Republican territory.

Trump's itinerary is both a reflection of where he can help (and where he can't) but also of a shifting landscape where even red state Republicans need a boost.

On the tarmac between rally stops in Arizona and Montana this week, Trump attempted to spin his visits to states he won decisively just two years ago as a matter of gratitude.

"So, I do it to thank them," Trump said. "I also do it because we have some great people there that are running and I want to make sure they win."

He went on to bemoan the drop in Republican turnout in years when he isn't on the ballot, something Trump and his team are trying to counteract with an October campaign rally blitz that has taken him to Ohio (twice), Texas (twice), Oklahoma and even Tennessee.

"What the hell am I doing in Tennessee?" Trump mused from stage to wild cheers.

Earlier this week, the president took an eight hour flight to Alaska to campaign for Republicans, Sen. Dan S. Sullivan and Rep. Nick Begich, both of whom face races that are too close for comfort in a state Trump won by 13 points in 2024.

"This is worth the 8 hours in a plane," Trump said to an adoring crowd. "And don't forget I've got 8 hours going back. Give me credit for that."

In fact, he made two more stops on the way back and spent the night at the Trump hotel in Las Vegas.

The Republican National Committee has announced he'll be campaigning in Kansas Monday, which has a toss-up U.S. Senate race, something few would have anticipated even a month ago.

Republicans are on defense in a lot of states where they've traditionally won without much trouble. Trump's team is picking locations where he can activate the Republican base in places where he's done well in the past.

"Just a lot of excitement, a lot of momentum building up on the ground here," said RNC Chairman Joe Gruters in a call with NPR from a Trump rally in Arizona. "It's turnout, turnout, turnout. How do you get the base to show up? You put the president on the ballot. You put him out there."

Trump frequently implores his supporters to vote as if he were on the ballot. It's a novel political strategy that runs counter to the norm for unpopular presidents whose parties face significant midterm headwinds. Trump claims the polls are wrong about his underwater approval rating.

As for Trump's message, it doesn't change much from stop to stop. There are the greatest hits: his past election wins, his One Big Beautiful Bill, and a walk down memory lane from right before he launched the war with Iran when gas prices were cheaper. He teases a $5,000 dividend to every American adult if Republicans win the House and the Senate, an idea he first rolled out at the unconventional Republican midterm convention, but has faced resistance from elected Republicans. On most stops he talks about a specific project or deal he has planned for the state.

On Tuesday, Trump is set to campaign in Greenville, North Carolina. Republican campaign committees have already started canceling ad reservations meant to help Trump's handpicked Republican Senate candidate there, Michael Whatley. It's a sign they see that race as moving out of reach.

There's also a congressional district in Eastern North Carolina that was redrawn to favor Republicans as part of Trump's mid-decade redistricting push. It shouldn't be competitive, but it's now rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.

"I think it's going to backfire on them this year in every way shape and form," said Anderson Clayton, chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party. "He's trying to drum up any amount of support that he can at the last minute. But I don't think that North Carolinians are going to fall for it again."