Trump's Strategy: Subduing China Without Fighting
Quick Look
Donald Trump's US grand strategy, inspired by Sun Tzu, focuses on reshaping the global economy to enhance US power against China, prioritizing control over semiconductors, rare earths, and maritime chokepoints over direct confrontation.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The article interprets US President Donald Trump's grand strategy through the lens of Sun Tzu's maxim about winning without fighting. It suggests that apparent inconsistencies in US policy may conceal a patient strategy to reshape the global economy and improve the US's relative position against China.
Sun Tzu wrote that “fighting and winning all your battles is not the height of skill; subduing the enemy without fighting is the height of skill”.
That maxim offers perhaps the clearest lens to interpret the logic of American grand strategy under US President Donald Trump.
What many dismiss as inconsistency may conceal a patient strategic deception. The aim is not direct confrontation, but the quiet reshaping of the global economy in support of long-term US power.
The US wants to improve its relative position vis-a-vis China for the long game. At the centre lies what might be called positional power – control over the critical nodes through which global economic systems operate. It’s about dominance of computational power (semiconductors), resource power (rare earths, energy) and connectivity power (shipping and maritime chokepoints).
Yet the American response since then may be less reactive than is often assumed. Recent US military interventions can be interpreted as part of a broader geopolitical repositioning that bears down on China’s vulnerabilities. Indeed, the logic of hemispheric consolidation and resource security appears in the US’ 2025 National Security Strategy.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
US will continue to focus on improving its relative position vis-a-vis China through economic and strategic means.
Very likely · Long term
Open Questions
- What specific military interventions are being referred to as part of this geopolitical repositioning?
- How effectively can the US achieve dominance over computational power, resource power, and connectivity power?
- What are the potential economic and diplomatic consequences of this strategy for other global actors?
- To what extent is this strategy a continuation or departure from previous US administrations' approaches to China?
