In the midterm elections held in the USA, the risky moves of the Trump administration in foreign policy, the Middle East tension and the financial burden brought by the concessions made to Israel did not find any response among the American voters. With the mass reaction of independents and young people, the balance in the Congress changed. Here are the policies of the Donald Trump administration and the main reasons behind the loss of votes at the ballot box...
1. PRICE PRESSURE AND COST OF LIVING INCREASED
The most important dynamic determining voter behavior was the course of interest rates and consumer price index. Despite the Fed's tight monetary policy steps, the ongoing price increases in food, housing and especially energy strongholds directly affected household budgets.
Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the one-year period through September, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data. According to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data, average retail diesel prices in the US in early October were close to record levels at $6.52 per gallon. 79% of voters participating in Edison Research / AP VoteCast exit polls said inflation has caused serious or moderate economic hardship to their families in the past year.
2. PUBLIC REACTIONS TO THE IRAN WAR AND HORUZ CRISIS
One of the most important factors of the rise in prices and the supply crisis was the Iran war launched by the USA and Israel in February. In retaliation, Tehran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz and blocked the global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transit route, causing fuel prices to skyrocket.
Voter surveys revealed that the majority of the public took a position against military action. According to Edison Research exit poll data, 63% of voters declared that the US decision to launch a military operation against Iran was wrong.
3. DEMOCRATS' DISCIPLINED CANDIDATE STRATEGY
The Democratic Party's wave has gained momentum, especially in traditional Republican strongholds, thanks to candidates who deliver a disciplined message with local presence. Democratic candidates focused squarely on the cost of living and access to health care issues.
As for the Republicans, the preference for candidates who were far from the center and stood out with their radical rhetoric during the primary elections caused undecided voters to stay away from the ballot box in the general election. Tensions over internal party judicial processes and institutions have weakened confidence in the Republican Party's capacity to govern.
4. SHIFTING OF SURBAR VOTERS AND INDEPENDENTS TO THE CENTER
The decisive vote shifts on the electoral map occurred in the suburbs around major cities. The independent voter group, with low party affiliation, preferred center candidates due to the hardening political discourse and concerns about radicalization in the social sphere. The loss of votes in these constituencies, where the educated urban population is concentrated, directly reduced the Republican Party's seats in the House of Representatives.
5. REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS, WOMEN AND YOUNG VOTER BASE REACTION
Restrictions enacted at the state level following the Supreme Court's rulings on abortion rights were the main social lever that triggered high turnout in elections.
The rate of female voters living in the suburbs and the young population going to the polls has increased significantly. In state referendums and neck-and-neck Congressional races, this social backlash against conservative interventions tipped the balance in favor of the Democrats.
