Trump, Xi, Putin meet next week: Why fears of a 'Yalta 2.0' are growing

The proposed Trump-Xi-Putin summit has revived fears of major powers deciding the fate of smaller nations, as they did at Yalta in 1945

US President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to meet in China's Shenzhen next week on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, raising concerns that the three major powers could discuss global issues and reach understandings without involving countries directly affected by them. Negotiations over the proposed meeting are still under way, with no agenda or format finalised, according to two people familiar with the discussions cited by news agency Reuters. Topics under consideration include the wars in Ukraine and Iran, nuclear weapons and artificial intelligence.

Why comparisons with Yalta Conference

The proposed gathering has drawn comparisons with the 1945 Yalta Conference, held in Crimea towards the end of World War II. US President Franklin D Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and Soviet leader Joseph Stalin met there to discuss the post-war settlement, including the division of influence in Europe. The conference helped shape the political order that emerged after the war and became associated with major powers deciding the fate of smaller countries. The comparison has resurfaced because Ukraine and other countries fear that a Trump-Putin-Xi meeting could lead to decisions on territorial disputes, security arrangements or spheres of influence without their participation. "We really don't want this to turn into 'Yalta 2, 3, 4,' with a redistribution of influence," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last month.

Three leaders, different priorities

The three leaders are approaching the proposed talks with different priorities. Putin is seeking discussions on ending the Ukraine war, while Trump has expressed interest in nuclear arms control. China, which has a considerably smaller nuclear arsenal than the US and Russia, has been reluctant to engage in such discussions.

A senior Trump administration official said, "we do not expect to get to any kind of agreement" on nuclear issues, but added that "it's time for China to sort of step up". China's embassy in Washington said it was in communication with relevant parties but had nothing to share. Putin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: "Suggestions are being exchanged regarding a possible agenda." He added that the meeting would "certainly be interesting" and attract global attention.