
AI-generated summary
More than 50 years ago, global greenhouse gases came mainly from developed economies like the United States. However, since the early 2000s, China and emerging economies have boosted energy and industrial production, leading to a shift in emissions focus to Asia.
After half a century, the landscape of global greenhouse gas emissions has shifted from Europe to Asia, with China having nearly three times more emissions than the US.
More than 50 years ago, global greenhouse gases came mainly from developed economies. At that time, the US was the world's largest polluter, with three times more emissions than China. Over time, the emissions balance has pivoted.
According to independent calculations by a group of scientists from the Joint Research Center (JRC, under the European Commission) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), the turning point took place in the early 2000s, when China and emerging economies promoted energy production and industry.
For example, in 2004, China's emissions exceeded those of the United States. India emitted more greenhouse gases than Russia in 2006, and Indonesia joined the top 10 global emitters two years later.
By 2024, China maintains its position as the world's largest emitter, with 15.5 billion tons of CO2e, nearly 3 times more than the US. India emitted 4.4 billion tons of CO2e, ranking third. Greenhouse gases from China and India this year were three and four times higher, respectively, than their emissions in 1990 (base year in climate reports).
In terms of proportion, China's emissions account for 29.2% of total global emissions in 2024, a sharp increase from 11.5% half a century ago. They aim to peak emissions before 2030, reaching net zero emissions by 2060.
On the contrary, from 2022, European Union (EU) countries will gradually leave the list of the 10 highest emitting countries. By 2024, this sector will reduce emissions by nearly 35% compared to 1990.
For example, France and Monaco were the 11th largest emitters in the world in 1990, but are now ranked 25th thanks to a 29% reduction in emissions. According to the JRC and IEA calculation method, Monaco's emissions are included in France, because of its negligible emissions and dependence on neighboring countries.
During the period 1970-2024, many economies that were once top 10 polluters achieved different emission reduction rates. Germany halved emissions, Britain 56%, Ukraine even reduced emissions by nearly 70%.
Globally, greenhouse gases have doubled in half a century, to 53.2 billion tons of CO2e, with a continuous increasing trend (except for two decreases due to the 2009 global financial crisis and Covid-19). The increase mainly comes from fossil fuel exploitation and use.
The emission data series of countries is calculated by JRC and IEA by the end of 2025, included in the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) report. The authors' calculations are based on many international statistical sources, including the IEA and the World Bank (WB).
National data is a gap in the global emissions reduction roadmap, due to differences in reporting processes and methodologies. To ensure measurement, the United Nations requires nearly 200 countries participating in the Paris Climate Agreement to submit biennial transparency reports (BTR), including national emissions inventory data and progress in implementing emissions reduction commitments, starting in 2024. As of the end of last year, only 67% of participating parties had implemented this report.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
China will peak greenhouse gas emissions before 2030.
Likely · Within years
The European Union will continue to reduce emissions and maintain its position outside the top 10 largest emitters.
Likely · Within years

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