İzmir Bakırçay University Geography Department Lecturer Prof. Dr. Şermin Tağıl told the AA correspondent that climate change no longer only means increasing temperatures, but also changes the usual order of the seasons.
Stating that on the one hand, there are long-lasting hot and dry periods, and on the other hand, heavy rains that take effect in a short time, Tağıl explained that, therefore, when evaluating the winter of 2026-2027, it is necessary to look not only at air temperatures but also at large-scale changes in the atmosphere and oceans.
"It reveals a variable winter picture for Türkiye"
Prof. Dr. Şermin Tağıl emphasized that in order to understand the course of winter this year, the interaction between El Nino, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Polar Vortex should be evaluated and said:
"The interaction of these three major systems affects weather conditions and extreme weather events in the Mediterranean Basin and our country. European Center for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) models reveal a variable winter picture for Turkey. Rainy and warm conditions stand out in the Mediterranean zone, which includes Türkiye. Rather than a dry winter, the models point to a period of increased precipitation. In addition, it is also noteworthy that global sea surface temperatures have reached the highest values recorded since the 1980s. Seas are warmer than normal. "The warm weather can increase the amount of moisture and energy transferred to the atmosphere, supporting heavy rains and winter storms in suitable atmospheric conditions. Model results show that temperatures in Türkiye will be above seasonal norms in the first half of the winter. However, this does not mean that there will be a dry winter. The moisture carried by the southern winds will increase precipitation, especially in the coastal areas and western regions. High temperatures will cause snow to decrease in low areas and hold more in high mountain areas."
In this sense, Tağıl stated that they expect the real remarkable change from mid-winter and stated that the weakening of the Polar Gyre is predicted in the model scenarios for the end of January and February.
"It may increase the likelihood of severe winter conditions."
Tağıl stated that the weakening of the Polar Gyre will make it easier for the freezing cold around the pole to move towards the middle latitudes and continued as follows:
"Experiencing these atmospheric conditions may increase the likelihood of severe winter conditions. The encounter of moist air coming from the Mediterranean and cold air masses advancing from the north under favorable conditions may lead to heavy rainfall and heavy snowfall and blizzard in some regions. In terms of snow in the winter of 2026-2027, warm conditions may make it difficult for snow to hold on to the ground. Increasing snowfall in the second half of the winter may strengthen the snow cover, especially in the high parts of Eastern Anatolia and Central Anatolia. However, models predict snow in other parts of our country." "It indicates that the drought may continue."
"It is of great importance to be prepared for different weather conditions"
Tağıl pointed out that the fact that most of the winter was warm and rainy was a pleasing development for Turkey, which has been under drought pressure for many years, but pointed out that the fact that warm and rainy conditions stood out throughout the winter did not mean that the risks had disappeared.
Tağıl said, "In the first half, heavy showers and precipitation that intensifies in a short time may cause floods and floods in some of our cities. In the second half, sudden temperature drops and heavy snowfalls may occur with cold air masses coming from the north. Of course, seasonal forecasts are not an exact calendar, but a probability map showing the possible course of the atmosphere. Showers and floods in the first half of winter, and sudden colds and snowstorms in the second half can seriously disrupt city life. Therefore, it is important to be prepared for different weather conditions." It's important." made his assessment.
