Following the fund crisis that started in Turkish markets in September, the sharp losses and investor exodus experienced in Borsa Istanbul continue to have an impact on the economy.
Last week, when the news about the fund crisis set the agenda, the BIST 100 index fell by 4.88 percent and closed at 12 thousand 270.18 points.
Following the start of the liquidation process for companies and funds and the announcement that interim payments would be made to damaged investors, Borsa Istanbul completed Monday, October 5, with an increase of approximately 1.5 percent.
However, the limited recovery in the stock market does not mean that the effects of the crisis on the economy are over.
INFLATION HAS DECREASED BELOW 30 PERCENT, BUT RISKS CONTINUE
According to TUIK's September 2026 data, consumer prices increased by 1.84 percent monthly. Annual inflation decreased to 29.73 percent, falling below 30 percent for the first time since November 2021.
The fact that monthly inflation was below expectations of over 2 percent brought about a debate about whether the slowdown in price increases was permanent.
According to economists, the decline in September was due to the weakening of domestic demand as well as food prices. The fact that oil prices are above 100 dollars and the increase in fuel costs pose a new inflation risk for the last months of the year.
Fatih Birol, President of the International Energy Agency, also stated that the rise in diesel prices could create new pressure on global inflation and said, "Diesel prices will put upward pressure on inflation figures all over the world in a very short time."
'THE TURBULENCE IN CAPITAL MARKETS ALSO HAS ITS REFLECTIONS'
Istanbul Bilgi University Department of Economics Lecturer Prof. Dr. Erhan Aslanoğlu pointed out that the slowdown in domestic demand was effective in inflation remaining below expectations in September.
Aslanoğlu said, "In general, September is a month in which inflation is expected to be high due to the influence of seasonal factors. The weakening of domestic demand was effective in the fact that inflation was below expectations compared to previous years. It seems that there is a reflection of the recent turbulence in the capital markets that we have experienced here."
Stating that the decline in the spending of investors and consumers after the fund crisis may reduce inflation for a short time, Aslanoğlu predicts that inflation will remain around 30 percent at the end of the year.
'GROWTH WILL BE SUPPORTED WITH THE ELECTION ECONOMY'
Evaluating the impact of the fund crisis on growth, Aslanoğlu drew attention to the year 2027.
Aslanoğlu said, "As we will enter the election economy period as of next year, I do not expect any concessions to be made on growth."
Stating that fiscal policies that support domestic demand for 2027 stand out in the New Medium Term Program, Aslanoğlu said, "I predict that this policy will be followed in the election year. That is why the current slowdown is temporary. We may see an upward movement in inflation again with the acceleration of growth."
Aslanoğlu also pointed out that it would not be enough to cover investors' losses after the fund crisis and made the following assessment:
"In the first stage, there is an effort to eliminate the grievances of the victims and to minimize the macro and financial reflections of this on the economy. This has to happen first. In the next stage, there is a need for a solid framework with a holistic legal regulation, supervision and organizational structure and sanction power to prevent what happened from happening again."
LOSS OF 1.94 TRILLION TL IN PORTFOLIOS OVER 10 MILLION TL
The extent of losses in the stock market on investors has also reached remarkable levels.
According to the calculation made by Phoenix Consultancy founder and finance expert İris Cibre, based on Central Registry Agency (MKK) data, the accounts of approximately 364 thousand 700 investors decreased to symbolic levels in September, when the fund crisis broke out.
According to Cibre's analysis, money outflow and loss of value in portfolios over 10 million TL reached 1.94 trillion TL.
In his assessment on his social media account, Cibre said, "This is the first time I have encountered such a shocking sight."
According to Cibre, the number of 364 thousand 700 people does not include investors who completely closed their accounts by withdrawing all the money in their accounts. In this group, there are investors who make losses or withdraw most of their money, leaving a balance between 0.1 TL and a thousand TL in their account.
CREDIT RATING AGENCIES DO NOT EXPECT SYSTEMIC RISK
International credit rating agencies are of the opinion that the impact of the fund crisis on the Turkish economy may remain limited.
Douglas Winslow, Fitch Ratings Senior Director responsible for Turkey, described the fund investigation as a "negative development" and stated that they do not expect the current developments to have an impact on Turkey's credit rating.
Winslow stated that due to the investigations, there has been no systemic risk or dollarization pressure in the overall economy so far.
S&P Global Ratings Turkey analyst Karen Vartapetov, in her statement on October 3, stated that if developments regarding funds are limited, there will be no downward pressure on Turkey's credit rating.
S&P's next credit rating assessment for Turkey is expected to be announced on October 16.
INFLATION OF THE POOREST IS 51 PERCENT
Drawing attention to the social dimension of the fund crisis, Kadir Has University Department of Economics Lecturer Prof. Dr. Erinç Yeldan pointed out that official inflation rates do not reflect the price increases experienced by different income groups to the same extent.
According to the research conducted by Yeldan with academician Bingül Satıoğlu, as of August 2026, the annual inflation of the richest 10 percent was 32 percent, while this rate reached 51 percent for the poorest 10 percent.
Yeldan stated that citizens trying to protect their savings against high inflation turned to the stock market and funds, and said, "This is the reason why speculations on funds can be made so easily and while some reach great wealth, thousands of people lose all their savings."
'IT REMINDS ME OF THE LOST 10 YEARS IN THE 90's'
Yeldan emphasized that the fund crisis should not be limited to financial markets only, and drew attention to the social policies that should be implemented in the face of income loss and high inflation.
Yeldan used the following statements:
We are in a period where people need to be supported directly as a basic income of citizenship, beyond simply increasing the minimum wage once a year or providing government support for natural gas or electricity bills. People who are vulnerable to inflation seek relief in such bad ways. This is no longer an economic incident, but has become a direct political and police incident. It is as if Türkiye is going through a process where it is once again experiencing the lost 10 years it experienced in the 90s.
Although the initial shock of the fund crisis in the stock market seems to have partially abated, the withdrawal of hundreds of thousands of investors from the market, portfolio losses exceeding trillion liras, and the debate on confidence in capital markets reveal that the economic effects of the crisis are not limited to index movements only.
