U.S. gas prices fall below $4 for the first time since July

Americans may finally find some relief at the pump.

The national average price of regular gasoline fell below $4 a gallon for the first time since July, reaching $3.9788 on Tuesday, according to AAA. Prices are down about 17 cents from a week ago and nearly 39 cents from a month ago.

The decline comes after energy inflation slowed significantly in October. Energy prices increased 0.7% during the month, a far cry from the 5.2% surge seen in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BLS' gasoline index increased 1% over the month, after advancing 9.1% in September.

Bespoke Investment Group pointed out that gasoline prices also tend to decline at this time of the year, making part of the recent relief seasonal.

"While lower oil prices have been a tailwind for the relief at the pump, it's also perfectly normal for gas prices to be falling at this time of year, so if they weren't, there would really be something wrong," the firm said.

Oil and inflation

The drop at the pump followed a sharp retreat in crude oil. International oil benchmark Brent crude on Tuesday briefly fell below $90 a barrel for the first time since August as comments from U.S. President Donald Trump fueled hopes for an end to Washington's nearly nine-month conflict with Iran.

Recovering oil flows from the Persian Gulf have also eased supply concerns. Regional crude exports have returned to an estimated 80% to 85% of prewar levels, including pipeline shipments, according to ING.

"Energy markets remain under pressure as hopes for a de-escalation in the Middle East reduce geopolitical risk premiums. Oil extended its losses as Gulf supply flows continued to recover, while European gas also moved lower," analysts at ING wrote.

However, the Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warned Tuesday that energy shocks may have more persistent effects on inflation than they did before the pandemic.

"While I am pleased to see energy prices down from their high rates over the past week or so, they are still quite elevated relative to the start of the year, and the ultimate effect on inflation will depend on what levels are sustained," he said.