The US government reports surprisingly high oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The ship movements recorded indicate significantly lower quantities. But there is evidence that the strait is more porous than it seems.
At first glance, there is little to suggest that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has eased. Tankers continue to be attacked and shipping traffic remains restricted. Available satellite images show that the number of oil spills in the Strait of Hormuz is increasing day by day. They are a sign that Iran is attacking tankers to close the strait. At the same time, they show that the USA is trying to keep it open - and that more oil is apparently being transported through the strait than expected.
It is unclear how much oil leaves the region by ship. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright claims it is almost nine million barrels per day - "thanks to the coordinated efforts of the US military and our Gulf allies". In addition, an additional five to seven million barrels would leave the region every day via newly expanded pipelines and export facilities. On average, 15 million barrels are exported per day.
If Wright's numbers are correct, exports have reached around 75 percent of the volume before the US-Israeli attacks on Iran began. That would mean that the oil market is not nearly as tight as many analysts fear. But Wright's numbers don't match those provided by providers that track ship movements. These currently only amount to four to five million barrels per day.
It is impossible to determine with certainty who is closer to the truth. Before the war, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could be tracked fairly reliably. The ships continuously broadcast their position. But now almost all tankers have switched off their signals. If a tanker disappeared from radar before the attacks, the position gaps could often be closed using high-resolution satellite images made available by several companies in near real time. But most providers no longer make such recordings available due to pressure from the US government.
According to the financial news agency Bloomberg, this essentially leaves two European Union satellites to observe the strait, which only take a picture every three to five days. Since it is known when the satellites fly over the region, loading at the ports can be adjusted so that they are not detected by the satellites. In addition, oil is now often transferred from one tanker to another on the high seas, sometimes several times. This serves to conceal the origin of the oil and its further transport route.
Oil less expensive than feared
There is a gap of several million barrels per day between the publicly verifiable oil flows and the US government's information. There are several possible explanations for this. Wright may be right, and the tracking services may actually be missing covert carries. This is exactly what the Energy Minister cites as his justification. In fact, the US government may have an information advantage: the US military is closely monitoring traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg also points out that market observers have underestimated the extent of covert transport in the past. If even a single supertanker went undetected per day, that would increase the amount of oil shipped by around two million barrels.
However, it is also conceivable that the Energy Ministry is convinced that its figures are correct, but is incorrectly recording transports. The Reuters news agency believes that double counting is possible, which can occur when oil is transferred from one ship to another on the high seas.
In addition, the covert passages often take place in convoys. Several tankers leave Hormuz within a short period of time before traffic dies down again. Wright bases his information on a seven-day average. Depending on how many such convoys fall during this period, this value may give a distorted picture.
Finally, there is also the possibility that Wright knows his numbers are wrong. In this case, he would still spread them because they fit the US government's political agenda. Unless Wright provides evidence, doubts will remain.
But the oil market provides an indication that supplies may be less tight than expected. Because the price of oil is far below the extreme values feared at the beginning of the war. Contributing factors to this include released strategic reserves, alternative transport routes and lower Chinese imports. But there may also be covert oil transports through the Strait of Hormuz.
It could soon become clear whether Wright's information is correct. If 15 million barrels per day actually leave the region, these quantities should appear in the import data of the receiving countries in the coming weeks - as soon as the tankers have completed their sometimes week-long journey to the destination ports.
