Latest polls in Serbia outline an uncertain outcome between students and Vucic

The latest polls for Sunday's early parliamentary elections in Serbia, often contradicting each other, show a very tight head-to-head between the Aleksandar Vučić-United Serbia list, led by the Progressive Party (SNS), and the new Student List-Students win!. In all cases, neither of the two centralizing formations would seem capable of reaching an absolute majority of votes and therefore of seats, while all the polls indicate a clear trend towards an increase in turnout, which would exceed 60%: a goal that has not been seen for at least two decades and a symptom, as indicated by many analysts, of the student movement's capacity for mobilization.

The uncertainty about the winner is partly due to different outcomes proposed by different institutes. The Faktor Plus institute, considered close to the government, assigns 48.6% to Vučić's formation and 37.1% to the Student List, whose growth it however recognizes. NSPM, an independent of conservative extraction, in its survey at the end of September gives the Student List at 44.4% and United Serbia at 41.7%. The recent poll by Crta - an NGO in defense of democratic transparency which also carries out polling institute activities - shows the Studentska Lista at 44.9% and Vučić's Ujedinjena Srbija at 35.7%. Another independent institute, Birodi, gives students an advantage over United Serbia of almost 10%, respectively at 48.5% of the votes, with a 'range' between 45.9% and 51.1%, United Serbia at 38.6%, with an estimated range between 36.3% and 40.9%. In the end. according to PolitPro, a European portal that calculates weighted averages of existing data, in the most recent estimate it shows Vučić ahead by around 2.6 points on the student list, with a forecast of 135 seats out of 250 for the outgoing majority.