Democrats achieved a historic success in the Congressional midterm elections that will determine the political balance in the remaining two years of President Donald Trump's second presidential term in the United States. Democrats took control of both houses of Congress, taking the majority from Republicans in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
'THERE IS AN ANTIPATHY AGAINST TURKISH LEADERSHIP'
International Relations Expert Dr. Mehmet Akif Koç commented to Cumhuriyet about the possible effects of the US elections on Turkey, the Middle East and the Mecca Agreement.
Stating that the possible effects of the US elections should not be evaluated separately from the elections in Israel, Koç said in his assessment of Turkish-American relations: "The government's relations with Trump were good. There were some advantages it brought and they used them to the fullest. However, there are some limits to what Trump can do due to some restrictions in American domestic politics. Despite this, he did his best or convinced the public here that he did what he did. But now, at the current stage, there will be a Senate where Trump cannot control. In this balance, Trump will have difficulty in getting everything he says done."
Pointing out that it will be difficult for Trump to act, Koç said, "There is no automatic hostility towards Turkey among the Democrats. However, there is an antipathy towards the Turkish leadership due to its closeness with Trump. Therefore, the government will need to manage this. It will also need to mobilize the lobbies close to them among the Democrats."
Stating that Trump will not be in office after 2 years and evaluating that this could create a bigger problem, Koç said, "If the trend continues like this, a democrat president will replace him. If that democrat president is someone with a more socialist orientation, things may be a little more troublesome for Turkey. Preparations need to be made for him."
'IF EİSENKOT COMES, BLOOD PRESSURE MAY DROP'
Discussing the effects of the elections on the Middle East through the US-Iran war, Koç said, "There are questions such as 'Will nuclear weapons be used?'. The continuation of the Iran war is not only related to Trump or American domestic politics. It is also related to Israel. If Israel continues with Netanyahu, it is likely that the Iran war will move to advanced phases. This is, of course, a more negative scenario. The use of tactical nuclear weapons is also possible with Netanyahu. If Gadi Eisenkot, not Netanyahu, forms a government with the Arab bloc, then there will be tension in the Iran war." "It may fall," he said.
Evaluating this as a big factor, Koç said, "Trump will be a 'lame duck'. He lost both the Senate and the Congress. He will no longer have such legislative support behind him. It is also important how Arab leaders, especially Mohammed bin Salman (Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia), will interpret this. If they say 'This man is a lame duck, he will not be here in 2 years', they will turn to other pursuits. Regional alliances, especially the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, may become even stronger."
'IRAN'S HAND WILL BE STRONG'
Stating that Iran's hand will be strengthened, Koç said:
"Therefore, other Arabs in the Gulf will either approach the Saudi Arabia-Turkey axis or look for ways to get along with Iran. Both of these are completely opposite to the Trump era. At this stage, I do not think it is very likely that Trump will be able to take further steps in the Iran war. Internal inflationary pressure has increased due to the swamp that the Iran war has put itself in. He could not deal with the internal affairs and acted under the guidance of Israel. Therefore, he is receiving a reaction from within.
He will not want to prolong this and turn it into 'his own Vietnam'. If Netanyahu leaves, Trump's hands will be a little easier. We need to wait a bit to see how the cabinet in Israel will be shaped. Will Netanyahu cause a completely different disaster scenario by bombing Iran in order to extend the interim prime ministership period without forming a government? Possibly. Will he drag Trump and the USA behind him? “This is also possible, but less likely.”
'MECCA AGREEMENT WILL GAIN STRENGTH'
Evaluating the Mecca Agreement, Koç said, "It will gain more power as a regional initiative in the coming period. As Trump and America allocate less energy here, it will gain power. Can Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan continue on their path without the support of America? This question is important. If a common ground can be found with Iran, the Mecca Agreement countries can create a little more space for themselves through this. We need to follow this a little more. In any case, it will get stronger."
'F35 WORK WILL GET MORE DIFFICULT'
Speaking about the F35 discussions between Turkey and the USA and the CAATSA sanctions, Koç said, "Normally, I have always thought that F35s would be given to Turkey. While the relations between Israel and Turkey are so tense, I do not think that the USA will give F35s to Turkey despite Israel. They are preparing the public for this, but I do not think it is possible. CAATSA sanctions are a little different. This is something that goes beyond Trump. Trump alone said 'I gave it'." He said, "Senate approval is required. If the Republicans could not do this while controlling the Senate, how will this be possible in the Senate? It seems very possible to me. There are two months before the new Senate takes office. We need to look at the precedents. I don't know if the outgoing Senate will take the initiative on such a critical issue. I think this will be a little more difficult with the new Senate."
